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[专题专项] 朝鲜伊朗新一代运载火箭——火星14号(Hwasong-14)/Safir-5(?)

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bugmenot 发表于 2013-2-12 00:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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本帖最后由 bugmenot 于 2013-2-12 00:27 编辑

The black service structure dwarfed the white rocket and was clearly built to prepare much larger North Korean rockets than the 118 ft. Unha-3.
...

U. S. and South Korean intelligence analysts believe the new facility is directly related to testing North Korea’s new 6,200 mi. range 130 ft. tall “Satan” long range ICBM and a related North Korean/Iranian space launch booster with up to six engines clustered in the first stage.

Iran and possibly North Korea plan to use the large new space launch booster to send Iranian and North Korean astronauts into space.

According to Charles P. Vick at Global Security.org, some analysts believe North Korea hopes to turn the Satan into a semi-mobile ICBM for concealment in caves etc. That would be very hard to do with such a large liquid fueled rocket he notes .Evident in images of the launch tower are service levels built for the much wider and taller Satan ICBM and space launch vehicles. The entire upper servicing level, with a large circular opening in the floor, extends well above the top of the Unha-3/TD-2 on the pad.

http://www.americaspace.com/?p=17120



Pictures recently seen on display at the Three Revolutions Museum’s space exhibit in Pyongyang may provide another clue to the mysterious rocket’s existence and characteristics. Figure 5 shows a photograph of an artist’s concept of a large satellite launch vehicle and gantry tower. The rocket and gantry portrayed in this picture differ from the Taepodong-1 launched in 1998 and the Unha rocket tested in 2009 and soon to be launched this week. But is this just another piece of propaganda or a representation of a future large DPRK space launch vehicle?

It’s impossible to say for sure. The space exhibit is full of false or misleading claims, including that the two satellites launched during previous tests achieved orbit, which they did not. Another photo shows a Chinese satellite that the North Koreans claim as one of their own. On the other hand, both launch videos and models of earlier rocket tests are accurate.

Assume for a moment, then, that the photo—propaganda though it may be—bares some resemblance to a future large North Korean rocket. The depiction of the confirmed gantry at Sohae doesn’t look quite the same, but let’s also assume that the dimensions are close. Given our detailed knowledge of the Sohae gantry from commercial satellite imagery, and now ground photos, the rocket in the picture can be roughly scaled to obtain its dimensions: about 38 to 40 meters long and 3.5 to 4 meters in diameter. The dimensions are similar to the large rocket reported by the press, the height of the Sohae gantry, and the diameter of the hole in the mobile test pad.

To carry this analysis one step further, a rocket of this size would be able to comfortably mount inside its first stage nine engines used by the Nodong medium-range missile—more than twice as many as the Unha-3 first stage.  The second stage looks to be 2.5 meters in diameter, similar to the Unha first stage, and could thus mount four engines.  The two stages alone would give the next-generation North Korean rocket nearly 450 tons of thrust, much more than the current generation of North Korean rockets and more than enough to power a highly capable ICBM or space-launch vehicle.

Figure 5. Artist’s concept of a possible larger new North Korean rocket.

http://38north.org/2012/04/nhansenfp041112/



Taep’o-dong-3
New Medium Lift Dedicated Space Booster
For
North Korean & Iranian
3-16-31 thru, 5-25-2012 /11-23-12
Rev.. 32
©By C. P. Vick, 2012
Senior Technical & Space Policy Analyst
Globalsecurity.org
Introduction
The appearance of the Taep’o-dong-3 in this Five Year Plan is no surprise. The much larger growth potential built into the mobile launch pad and gantry umbilical tower on the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province confirmed and foretold the appearance of this development. The obvious expected and predictable new launch infrastructure upgrades approved during the previous Five Year Plan on the Tonghae Satellite Launching Station infrastructure in Hwadae County, in North Hamgyong Province also confirms these developments. Its previously launch facilities had in fact outgrown its usefulness for new larger space systems. How the pieces fall in place to create the full picture of the DPRK crewed flight plans and the know Iranian crewed flight plans utilizing the dedicated geo-stationary space booster and exploitation of Chinese design heritage capsule redesign for sub-orbital & later orbital crewed flight development is reviewed in this initial report.
The DPRK Space Effort Continues:
The hand writing on the wall has been there all along for this dedicated Taep’o-dong-3 geostationary, crewed military/civil space booster during the previous two DPRK, Five Year Plans [1-1-2006 - 12-30-2010] & [1-1-2001 – 12-30-2005]. These developments were observed both at the R&D infrastructure of the DPRK and the newer launch infrastructure as well as the Present Five Year Plan [1-1-2011 - 12-30-2015] fiscal requirements planning. Taep’o-dong-3 has been rumored in development since early during the last five year plan around the time of the Taep’o-dong-2 first experimental flight test of July 5, 2006.
Future space launches within this State, Five Year Plan 1-1-2011 through 12-30-2015 will probably be delayed 12-18-36 months due to the April 13, 2012 Unha-3/Taep’o-dong-2 launch failure. This has not daunted the DPRK State Planning as is below emphasized. One could also expect more developments under the large in excess of 40-47 meters tall dedicated geostationary space booster’s Taep’o-dong-3 research & development program and large new growth potential launch infrastructures (73) in addition to the Unha/Taep’o-dong-2m series. The North Korean, Strategic Rocket Forces deployed No-dong-B IRBM is to receive the first models of the new in R&D, KN-08, LRICBM (No dong-C) programs with in this Five Year Plan. This will be over and above the three times a year regular missile testing training program operations conducted by the DPRK. (20, 21, 22, 23)
North Pyongyang, Sanum-dong Missile Development Center factory R&D Infrastructure
In the DPRK “everybody works under the same roof” for the State and it is no different on the large north Pyongyang, Sanum-dong Missile Development Center factory vast conglomerate infrastructure and its State responsibilities. Remember General Odem, quote “The military is the State and the State is the military.” without which nothing would function in the DPRK. Both the Taep’o-dong-2 and new 40 meter long Taepo-dong-3 as well as the KN-08, LRICBM have appeared on this infrastructure.
The north Pyongyang, Sanum-dong Missile Development Center factory constitutes a vast facility, testing grounds and general R&D, production conglomerate as modern as any facilities in the high technology Western world. This is the result of studying the Google Earth images publically available on line. It contains wind tunnels that are near identical to the most advanced US, NASA and USAF facilities. In deed the infrastructure is like combining the NASA Marshall Spaceflight Center, Langley Research center, Glenn Research Center and Ames Research Center, in addition to the Tullahoma, Arnold Air Force Base facilities with it Arnold Engineering Development Center. In some cases it reminds one of facilities that only the US has and they are near identical to the US designs. How they have achieved this is indeed an intriguing question with many implications. Yes this infrastructure contains the General satellite Command & Control center. It also apparently handles much of the military aircraft development for the DPRK.
External R&D sites Identified
The Sanum-dong Missile Development Center facility also utilizes other static test firing and dynamic test facilities located on the Musudan-ri,” ( Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground infrastructure in Hwadae County, in North Hamgyong Province) as well as the Pongdong-ni, or Dongchong-ri or Tongch'ang-dong, Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province infrastructure. This is beyond the Pyongyang surrounding general Space Program and Military Ballistic Missile R&D infrastructure all working under the same DPRK Government employer roof serving both so called civil and military requirements. The Pyongyang region also includes the Earth Station with its large Dishes and the General Satellite Monitoring Facilities with its multiple smaller dishes.
Leaked Department of State Classified Cables Excerpts Confirm Rumors of Two New Missile Systems in Development in the DPRK
Keeping an eye on two circumstantial developments in North Korea (DPRK) missilery Bill Gertz of the Washington Times, noted on December 5, 2011 the known passages from classified Department of State cables from the website WikiLeaks. It reviews and confirms the Sohae Satellite Launching Station already publically understood new growth potential large mobile launch pad & in excess of 40 meter tall gantry umbilical tower much larger development than previous soft launch site for a larger medium lift booster . (20) The cables also indicates the two different systems at issue one a semi-mobile Limited Range-ICBM and one a large space booster potential super full range ICBM the mission of which was not at the time fully understood when written. (20)
Imagery of the Launch Facility Buildup what can be gleamed from it?
Over the construction years of 2001-2011 two full Five Year Plans long the much larger growth potential built into the large mobile launch pad that has a flame deflector hole 4.0 meters in diameter and gantry umbilical tower that is over 47 meters tall without the gantry crane added on the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province confirmed and foretold the appearance of this development. That flame deflector hole is only for the Taep’o-dong-3 booster first stage engines but the booster first stage tankage will be larger than that throughout its length. That diameter could be as much as 4.1-(4.15)-4.2 meters in diameter not including potential fins. Initial use of the mobile pad carried an adapter for the Taep’o-dong-2’s, first stage diameter of 2.5 meters. That is over 47 meter height of the gantry umbilical tower also reflects the expected maximum height range of the planned booster as it is presently understood.
The larger point being that the Sohae Satellite Launching Station launch infrastructure is much more developed than the older existing one Tonghae Satellite Launching Station not including the even larger new heavy lift launch vehicle infrastructure being developed. (77)
It literally sports an under construction launch facility with a booster first stage base diameter on the order of 9.5-9.8 meters. That could be a Taep’o-dong-3 utilizing two or four Taep’o-dong-2 or KN-08's or No-dong-B first stages as strap-on boosters ore a single Taep’o-dong-3 first stage as a strap-on booster among other potential booster design variations. These design varations seem to follow the Chinese Long March Design approach. That could create a booster diameter as great as 9.2 meters.
Taepo-dong-3 First Appearance of the New DPRK Space Booster
Is this a dedicated geostationary space booster’s development program or is this the DPRK new “Satan”, Long Range ICBM, programs existence is confirmed by the quoted revelations recently acquired.
The first view of the postulated Taep’o-dong-3 very real 40 meter long with its “bigger booster” stage with an estimated “range of more than 10,000 km” Taep'o-dong- 3 potential DPRK “Satan” three stages full range ICBM, space booster was reported on April 3, 2012. (74) It was first reported as being imaged by a U. S. reconnaissance satellite at its north Pyongyang, Sanum-dong Missile Development Center factory R&D infrastructure “…..that is larger than the existing Taep’o-dong-2 missile.” by The Chosun Ilbo on April 3, 2012. (74) Whether it is a full size mock-up or more probable functional facilities, all systems up, ground & logistic test vehicle is not fully certain. The new launch vehicle appears to be entirely consistent with the DPRK & Iranian planning requirements.
Knowing that the North Koreans utilize the Soviet design development process using subscale dynamic test models to prove a vehicle structurally means that this model was almost certainly a true functional facilities, all systems up, ground & logistic test vehicle. It would be utilized as a non-flight vehicle for ground facilities testing and especially static test firings demonstration. It would utilize throughout all stages storable highly toxic liquid propellants with a fuel of Unsymmetrical Dimethyl hydrazine (UDMH) while its oxidizer is a derivation of [Inhibited Red Fuming nitric Acid (IRFNA) & N204 = AK-27P] in all stages. (29)
It is possibly the previously predicted Taep’o-dong-3 follow on is exactly what Iran would need for its planned manned spacecraft program so here we have another potentially cooperative program in development between the two countries under the technology transfer treaty agreement acknowledging the known reality. (20, 21, 22) After all how could Iran plan on such a vehicle without knowing it was in the pipe line for them? That is emphasized by the reality that the DPRK is far ahead of Iran in pushing ahead on the very hard to accomplish development of large long range multi-stage space boosters.
Serious Reality Questions on the Semi-mobile ICBM Viability of this Dedicated Geo-stationary, Crewed Space Booster
Realistically this dedicated space booster is a very large booster rocket systems on the order of 40 47 meters or more taller with at least a 4.1 meter diameters first stage as wide as a railroad car or larger requiring considerable mobile ground support systems in addition to weeks of preparation on pre-surveyed soft sites does not adapt itself well as a strategic ICBM no matter how it is presented. A 40 meter long missile whether 2.5 - 3.35 - 4.1 - 4.2 meters in diameter is an unwieldy monster to handle logistically no matter what its purpose. It literally exceeds the SS-9, SS-18 ICBM’s diameter and length of the former Soviet Union, Russia today. It’s a bad joke to call it a semi-mobile designs which it absolutely is not. Since they are not deployed in “coffin”, “silo” or “cave/underground tunnel” based military garrison sites brings into question its viability as strategic ballistic missile system but yet there is that potential option to attempt to operate in that fashion with its potential strategic threat that cannot be ignored. Let us all hope that not too much is being read into this national security threat potential since there is only one viable site capable of launching such a large missile system with its considerable support personnel and mobile fueling vehicles in addition to the extensive launch support infrastructure.
The following information was released by senior official of the DPRK space administration:
The General Manager of the satellite launch infrastructure Mr. Jang Myong Jin stated that the DPRK plans to launch a 400 metric tonnes total mass space booster in the future. (29)
The Korean Central News Agency quote from the DPRK Committee for Space Technology (KCST) on April 15, 2012 as stating that “Scientists and technicians of the DPRK have already wound up the specific and scientific probe into the cause of Kwangmyongsong-3’s failure to enter its orbit.” And “All the scientific and technological data and previous experience gained this time will serve as a very precious boon to space development and a reliable guarantee for greater success in the days ahead.” It went on further to state “We have a comprehensive state plan for space development including expansion and strengthen of space development institutions as required by latest science and technology and continued launch of working satellites need for the country’s economic development. (66, 67)
Geostationary Satellites and Associated launch Vehicle Requirements under the DPRK State Plan for Space Development
Earlier on April 17, 2012 it had stated “We will expand and strengthen space development institutions and continue a variety of working satellites needed for economic development of the country including geostationary satellites under the state plan for space development.” (68) In order to accomplish such missions with the Taep’o-dong-3 space booster its last stages would have to be cable of carry out a considerable plane change prior to geostationary orbital insertion. This in part could be divided between the initial orbital launch stages as well as the parking orbit stages. The basic three stage Taep’o-dong-3 three stage booster almost certainly will have some sort of post boost maneuvering stage possibly as a part of the spacecraft payload.
Revelations from Tehran, Iran and its Piloted Program Planning Reflect DPRK Activities
More recently Iran revealed that it plans to send its first Astronaut into space within ten years (2021?) or more accurately during the Iranian year of 1403 which is between March 2024-March 2025, as a outlook plan that is tentatively being formulated according to Reza Taghipour head of the Iranian Aerospace organization stated on Iranian State television. August 21, 2008. That is within the next six months to one year this proposal will be firmed up with exact dates of the requirements for the mission of the three State three year plans down the road. Subsequently Iran has converted its space program to Five Year Plans like that utilized by China and North Korea.
Iran has now decided as of July 25, 2010 ostensible due to external pressures from the West to accelerate its manned space program rescheduling it for the Iranian year of 1398 which is March 2019-March 2020. The below illustration would seem to indicate the planned launch vehicle development process leading to a crewed spacecraft program for Iran.
Accelerated Human Crew Launch Schedule
Iran plans a launch of an astronaut human crew in 2016/2017 that is 7 years from 2010. This is part of an originally scheduled 12 year plan leading to Iranian crewed flight originally scheduled for 2021. The plan authorized by the Iranian government covering several three year plans has in fact been accelerated forward as of August 4, 2010. The basis of its new missile booster developments lead by its aerospace organization recently revised for human crewed sub-orbital launch to 2019 but now there is talk for 2016/2017 as the earliest possible year of the flight. Iran had initially decided as of July 25, 2010 ostensible due to external pressures from the West to accelerate its manned space program rescheduling it for the Iranian year of 1398 which is March 2019-March 2020. At that point the Iranian government decided to go for breaking the crewed program into two phases. The first phase to be sub-orbital crewed flight into space followed by crewed orbital flight once the booster becomes available. This was in recognition that the under 200 kilometer altitude flight for a crewed spacecraft as a suborbital mission was more feasible that the orbital flight that required much more development time reflecting its level of difficulty. (76)
The below illustration would seem to indicate the planned launch vehicle development process leading to a crewed spacecraft program for Iran. Subsequently more details have here in emerged from the DPRK and Iran clarifying many possible design issues of the planned systems.

This was a first estimation but now more details have emerged from the DPRK that impact the Iranian considerations. It has been indicated a much longer heavier class launch vehicle than previously considered that has considerable growth potential is being developed. Speculation on derivations on the Iranian Simorgh-5, 6 IRILV designs may permit its first human spaceflight program in addition to providing it with a potential full range ICBM though it is entirely too large to be practical as a weapons system.
Comparisons North Korean (DPRK) and Iranian ballistic missiles & Space boosters
No-dong-B and Its Ongoing Testing & it Impact on the present & Future Systems Heritage

The No-Dong-B propulsion technology has had a direct impact on the KN-08 propulsion technology and its impact on both the Taep’o-ding-2 second and third stages as well as the Taep’o-dong-3 booster. The KN-08 should probably be designated No-dong-C since it is an outgrowth of its technology based in the Soviet era Makeyev OKB heritage. Yes Iran has the solid motor technology demonstrated but has it been transferred to the DPRK is at this writing possible but not proven in spite of the level of cooperation in missile & nuclear weapons well documented and demonstrated. Iran and the DPRK have the No-dong-B that was flight tested on January 17, 2006 out of Iran for both the DPRK and Iran traveling some 3,218 km of its known potential 3,861 km (20) range demonstrated then during one of the DPRK’s moratoriums. In that respect this is both confirmed by the Israeli Intelligence sources & methods but especially the U. S. Ballistic Defense Agency officials in speeches as well as classified Department of State cables on the website WikiLeaks .
The critical point is No-dong-B:
Finally on January 29, 2007 the US government acknowledged for the first time the existence of several new Iranian and North Korean missiles under development through a speech by the deputy director of the Missile Defense Agency of the Pentagon Army Brig. General Patrick O’Reilly before the George C Marshall Institute. In that speech he described the Iranian two stage Ghadr-110 solid propellant missile with a range of (1,324 miles) 1,995.16 or close to 2,000 kilometers. It has been known that the Iranians are working on the Ghadr-101 as well as the Ghadr-110 solid propellant missiles. The Ghadr-101 solid motor development was completed in 2005. He also described the two stage Taep’o-dong-2C/3 as having a range of (6,200 Miles) 9,975.8 kilometers and the three stage version with a range of (9,300 miles) 14,963.7 kilometers with a 250 kg warhead. He went further in his slides presentation to show that the No-dong-B has a demonstrated range of 2,000 miles or 3,218 kilometers (3,000 kilometers) when it is capable of flying (2,485 miles) or 4,000 kilometers. (24) The No-dong-B was described as “a qualitative improvement in the performance” from earlier North Korean missile systems. The Iranian Ghadr-101, 110, 110A will in fact also provides Iran with an ASAT capability besides its operational MRBM and IRBM capability. (23)
Today we know the maximum potential range of No-dong-B is 3,861 km not 4,000 km though 3,218 km has been demonstrated successfully. No-dong-B has undergone several static test demonstrations to improve its performance through the years labeled as static test firing and dynamic test facilities located on the Musudan-ri,” ( Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground infrastructure in Hwadae County, in North Hamgyong Province. It is also believed to have been successfully flight tested several times over the years as a vertical probe within the DPRK’s territory after all how else would the actual range performance of the deployed system No-dong-B be known. This is over and above the known test flight out of Iran previously acknowledged.
Advent of the KN-08 LRICBM No-dong-C Development Progress and its Engines
It was reported on the 24 hour news channel, “YTN TV of Seoul, South Korea quoted an intelligence source as saying “the communist state carried out four tests over 16 weeks until early this year to develop an inter-continental missile at a test facility at Musudan-ri on the northeastern coast.” And that “The tests were aimed at improving engines and propellant fuel for the missile, code-named KN-08, the source said.” (75)
It went on further to say as stated by “South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency and the YTN TV later citing military sources and analyst as saying the rocket is a new long-range missile. Presumed to be a ballistic missile with a range of 6,000 kilometers (3,700 miles)” This identifies the KN-08 as a limited range ICBM (LRICBM) in the Taep’o-dong-2 class performance. (75)
The KN-08 boosters stage engines have been static test fired four times over sixteen weeks during late 2011 early 2012 at the static test firing and dynamic test facilities located on the Musudan-ri,” ( Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground infrastructure in Hwadae County, in North Hamgyong Province. These tests were focused on improving the propellant tank immersed closed cycle propulsion performance of the engines before flight testing of the KN-08 commences soon within this Five Year Plan. The applicable propulsion systems being utilized for the KN-08 will in all probability are being applied to the Taep’o-dong-3 dedicated geostationary space booster’s development program for its performance improvements. That would require at least eight KN-08 first stage engines to accommodate the 400 tonnes launch mass.
The question To Ask of U. S. intelligence and DoD has it been flight tested vertically like a sounding rocket inside the DPRK or Iran and or what have they not told us? The same question especially applies to the South Korean officials of the Minister of Defense and executive branch? This applies to the No-dong-B and KN-08 ballistic missiles.
Makeayev OKB Heritage Implication of Continued Developments Unexplained
The Taep’o-dong-3 has a V. P. Makeyev OKB heritage design wise but must be presumed to reflecting on very real system that is in the advanced stages of development that will exceed the Taepo-dong-2 space booster capability. There can be no further doubt about the ongoing Makeyev OKB technology transfer in North Korea based on the entire previous systems heritage. That heritage goes back to the Scud-B through Taep’o-dong-2 technology, and personnel technology transfer that took place in the Gorbachev era. It strongly suggests that the Makeyev personnel remaining are still working on DPRK missile systems. We now have a consistent Acad. V. P. Makeyev OKB launch vehicle and Acad. A. M. Isayev ; OKB -2 propulsion design heritage for the following systems that have flown in flight test except for the latest last two in research and development: They are as follows:
Acad. V. P. Makeyev OKB DPRK Heritage Missile Systems:
Name TYPEDESIGNATION, MISSION, S /F
Scud-BTBMSuccess
Scud-C TBM Hwasong-5 Success
Scud-ER TBM Hwasong-6 Success
No dong-A MRBM
Success
No dong-B IRBM Success
Taep’o dong-1 Space booster Unha-1 Failure
Taep’o dong-2 R & D Space booster Unha-2, 3, 4 Failures
Taep’o dong-3 R & D Dedicated Space Booster Geostationary / Manned L.V. ?
KN-08 R & D LRICBM to replace TD-2 [No-dong-C (cpv)] ?
TBM-Tactical Ballistic missile, MRBM-Medium Range Ballistic Missile, IRBM- Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile, LRICBM – Limited Range Inter-continental Ballistic Missile
South Korea ministry of defense says the KN-08 LRICBM has a range of 6,000 kilometers essentially matching the TD-2 performance.  The KN-08 is based on the Russian Makeyev OKB RSM-40/RSM-50 SLBM’s heritage direct copies technology transfer modifications. It is interesting to note they are still having trouble developing space boosters which is not their experience base but they have been highly successful developing ballistic missiles.
The DPRK & Iranian Crewed launch Vehicle & Spacecraft as Presently Understood reflect its growth potential designs
This is a tentative analysis through November 2012
It may be too early to speculate on the probability that the crewed spaceflight plans of both Iran and the DPRK have essentially merged that will utilize the dedicated geo-stationary space booster variations and a revised Chinese design heritage reconnaissance spacecraft and capsule for crewed flight in addition to launching planned satellite for both countries. In order to accomplish it geostationary missions with the Taep’o-dong-3 space booster its last stages would have to be cable of caring out a considerable plane change prior to geostationary orbital insertion. This in part could be divided between the initial orbital launch stages as well as the parking orbit stages. The basic three stage Taep’o-dong-3 three stage booster almost certainly will have some sort of post boost maneuvering stage possibly as a part of the spacecraft payload.
Taep’odong-3 is expected to be flight test with in this fiscal Five Year Plan 2011-2015 through the middle of the following 2016-2020 Five Year Plan. It is said to be at least 40 meter long as a three to four stage booster with taller versions expected for longer payloads. It could easily grow to a length of 48 meters with a full crewed flight spacecraft configuration. Its first stage utilized possible ten not twelve, KN-08 first stage improved propellant tank immersed fixed closed cycle propulsion higher performance engines of 50,985.81 kilograms force thrust times ten = 509,858.10 kilograms thrust force along with a four separate steering verniers engine system with perhaps 28,000 kilograms thrust for a total of 537,858.10 kilograms thrust to launch the 400 tonnes booster at 1.35 g’s acceleration. The first stage about 4.15 meters in diameter would carry four large fins. The second stage is believed to be in the 2.5 meter diameter range while the third stage is believed to be in the 2.48 meter diameter range. Interesting enough the third stage appears to be a combination cylindrical tapered design leading to what has an uncanny appearance of a Chinese design heritage radically redesigned Project-714 reconnaissance spacecraft and capsule. The fourth stage is considered a part of a spacecraft design for crewed flight that bears a strong resemblance to a Chinese design heritage radically redesigned spacecraft and capsule for crewed flight in addition to launching satellite to geo-stationary orbits for both countries.
The existing Tonghae Satellite Launching Station even larger new heavy lift launch vehicle infrastructure being constructed through this Five Year Plan exhibits the potential first stage growth designs with addition of future follow-on second and third stage diameters matching the first stage diameter in future configuration. That apparently is not the initial configuration upper stages being developed. It literally sports an under construction launch facility with a booster first stage base diameter on the order of 9.5-9.8 meters which could be a Taep’o-dong-3 utilizing two or four Taep’o-dong-2 first stages as strap-on boosters or a single Taep’o-dong-3 first stage as a strap-on booster among other potential booster design configurations. It would utilize throughout all stages the storable highly toxic liquid propellants with a fuel of Unsymmetrical Dimethyl hydrazine (UDMH) while its oxidizer is a derivation of [Inhibited Red Fuming nitric Acid (IRFNA) & N204 = AK-27P]. (29)
The flame deflector hole diameter of 4.0 meters and gantry umbilical tower that is well over 40 meters tall (using existing optical lensing that does not take into account the optical for shortening to it real height of in excess of 46.25 – 47 meter plus when scaled from the local ground images) on the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province confirmed the boosters overall dimensions. That flame deflector hole is only for the Taep’o-dong-3 booster first stage engines but the booster first stage tankage will be larger than that throughout its length. That diameter could be as much as 4.1 -(4.15)- 4.2 meters in diameter not including potential fins. That 40-47 meter height of the gantry umbilical tower also reflects the expected maximum height range of the planned booster as it is presently understood. The new launch vehicle appears to be entirely consistent with the existing design evolution details with some DPRK released art work of a future launch vehicle as seen on the http://38north.org/2012/04/nhansenfp041112/web site.
PROVISIONAL ESTIMATED: TD-3 design based on pad and heritage TD-2B, No-dong-B and KN-08/No-Dong-C missile systems designs as well as DPRK released art wiork of a larger space booster configuration.

Separating ICBM’s from Space Boosters and U. S. Policy ERROR
Equally the Taepo-dong-3 size does not easily adapt to a semi-mobile ICBM and one ends up wonder if this is not a super space booster only with growth potential but also that it is two different animals being explored here. That is one huge space booster with growth potential but it certainly is not a smaller semi-mobile limited range ICBM that has yet to appear until very recently on April 15, 2012.
It definitely reflects what Iran and the DPRK would need to be a manned space booster. It is however known that Iran is working on Solid propellant longer range missile possible ICBM for its military so perhaps the DPRK will also produce it in the not too distant future as a trade for the large 40 meter long space booster though that is speculation based on some known’ s and a lot if If’s.
“Cold War” lessons learned or lost, Policy Issue?
The question in my mind is have we lost perspective of one of the most critical lessons learned from the “Cold War” between the former USSR and US that could have foreshortened the Cold War as it applies to the DPRK (North Korea) and what it is saying? If indeed the DPRK is attempting to develop a series of low to medium lift space boosters as is so evident now as opposed to the strategic ballistic missiles and if every country has a right to a peaceful space program and access to space then can we separate the strategic/nuclear issues from the space program issues under safeguards to get cooperation/leverage in cutting the DPRK strategic/nuclear systems as the world desires. Surely this possibility should be explored by policy makers. We must keeping in mind that the DPRK are masters of Deception and Psychological Warfare as applied to its outside world relations for mind and perception, Strategic Control is a way of life there. They live and believe their own lies to themselves for their purposes.
References:
73. The rocket in Kim Jund Un’s Pocket, by Nick Hansen, http://38north.org/2012/04/nhansenfp041112/ & [11] Image: http://38north.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/NHfig6.jpg , April 12, 2012, p. 1-5
This is the DPRK large 40 meter long dedicated geostationary space booster’s development program, large new growth potential launch infrastructure pad gantry umbilical tower. And Chinese based technology for manned spacecraft development. http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/space-technology-and-news/dispatching-iranian-astronaut-to-below-200-km-orbit/msg119356/?topicseen#msg119356
20. Gertz, Bill, North Korea making missile able to hit U.S. The Washington Times, Dec. 5, 2011. P. 1-4, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/5/north-korea-making-missile-able-to-hit-us/?page=all
21. Gertz, Bill, Inside The Ring: North Korea’s ICBM, The Washington Times, March 7, 2012, p. 1, http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/mar/7/inside-the-ring-north-koreas-icbm/
22. N. Korea “Building Even Bigger Missile”, The Chosun Ilbo , http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/04/03/2012040300634.html, April 3, 2012, p. 1
23. http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20070130-122437-6559r.htm, Gertz, Bill, How the “axis” seeks the killer missile, The Washington Times, January 30, 2007, p. ?
77. New Launch Facilities Under Construction at Musudan-ri, Possible Iranian Connection, By 38 North, http://38north.org/2012/05/musudan052212/ , May 24, 2012, p. 1-6.
74. N. Korea ‘Building Even Bigger Missile’, The Chosun Ilbo, http://english.chosun.com/ , April 3, 2012, p. 1.
29. Champion, Gilles, Japan deploys missile batteries as North Korea prepares to launch long-range rocket, National Post, AFP, April 8, 2012 pp. 1-3
66. N. Korea says will continue to launch satellites under space program, Yonhap News agency, Seoul South Korea, April 20, 2012, p. 1.
67. DPRK’s Satellite for Peaceful Purposes to Continue Orbiting Space: KCST Spokesman, KCNA, Pyongyang, DPRK, April 19, 2012, p. 1-4.
68. DPRK rejects UNSC’s Act to Violate DPRK’s Legitmate Right to Launch Satellite, KCNA, Pyongyang, DPRK, April 17, 2012, p. 1-2.
76. Iran Military Forum, http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/space-technology-and-news/dispatching-iranian-astronaut-to-below-200-km-orbit/msg119356/?topicseen#msg119356
75. N. Korea test long-range missile: report, From AFP, Seoul, South Korea, reporting on the 24 hour news channel, YTN-TV report on the testing of the DPRK KN-08, limited range ICBM that was also reported by Yonhap news agency, April 14, 2012, P. 1.


http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/td-3.htm


 楼主| bugmenot 发表于 2013-2-12 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 bugmenot 于 2013-2-12 21:10 编辑

伊朗已开始研制两种新的运载火箭发动机
Iran Plans to Start Work on Two New Engines for Satellite Carrier Rockets

Date and Time:
15:53 | 2013-02-11


The Iranian Ministry of Science, Research and Technology approved two major national projects in the fields of research and technology, which include designing and developing two new engines for the country’s satellite carrier rockets.


“Two macro-scale national projects have been added to the 38 major national projects already underway in the country and the executive operations for these two plans are being carried out now,” Deputy Minister of Science, Research and Technology for Research Affairs Mohammad Mahdinejad Nouri told reporters on Monday.


He said the projects include manufacturing engines for satellite carrier rockets and devising a paradigm for the governing system.


As regards the new rocket engines, Mahdinejad Nouri said Iranian universities, including Sharif, Amirkabir, Tabriz and Mashhad’s Ferdowsi University will participate in the 5-year project.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9107143648
 楼主| bugmenot 发表于 2013-2-12 00:07 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 bugmenot 于 2013-2-12 21:05 编辑

朝鲜已开始研制火星14号

2012.04.27 02:23:57

그런데 이번 열병식에 나온 것이《화성13》호가 400톤급 토풀(Topol) M-25라니...더 무서운 것은 화성14호 15호, 16호, 17호 등 그 이상의 신형대륙간탄도미사일(ICBM)도 이미 실전에 배치되었지만 아직 아무에게도 공개하지 않았다는 사실이다.

But this time only the Hwasong-13 (Mars-13) ICBM is publicly displayed on parade, while the Hwasong-14 currently under development ...

http://www.minjok.com/news/news_view.php?code=37134
 楼主| bugmenot 发表于 2013-2-12 00:19 | 显示全部楼层
朝鲜航天员图片

Soldiers depicting North Korean astronauts marched in one recent Pyongyang parade.

http://www.americaspace.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Failure-NK-astornauts-425x280.jpg
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=17476

点评

用火车装还差不多  发表于 2013-2-23 16:44
像生化部队。。。。。  发表于 2013-2-14 20:45
naugty 发表于 2013-2-12 10:55 | 显示全部楼层
以后转发这种帖子最好用中文提取最重要的信息,列在内容前面,方便版友阅读。
头像被屏蔽
a123s0000 发表于 2013-2-13 19:40 | 显示全部楼层
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
 楼主| bugmenot 发表于 2013-2-14 20:31 | 显示全部楼层
a123s0000 发表于 2013-2-13 19:40
棒子僵尸群

根据著名某国航天专家、电视记者,航天论坛会员JimO 的评论,全世界首都包括华盛顿、汉城,东京等城市中的人都已变成了嗜血的僵尸魔。

We might as well have told them that space aliens had taken over all the world's capitals, or that the dead had risen and zombie armies were on the march.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/50049457/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/has-north-korea-learned-its-lessons-about-launches/
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