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[科普资料] 美国导弹防御系统动能拦截弹研制与部署现状

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JK-SETI 发表于 2010-5-19 01:42 | 显示全部楼层
从2002年到2009年的10次拦截试验中,有8或9枚SM-3拦截器未能直接击中目标导弹的弹头。

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2008年11月1日,“太平洋闪击”飞行试验;弹头很可能继续飞行,命中目标
A:撞击前1秒。注意:如果靶弹没有大型尾翼,传感器将无法确认导弹的哪一头是弹头。
B:撞击前一帧:没有直接击中弹头
1到2秒内,拦截器能机动几十米。
“人造优势”:威胁空域内没有多个对象,目标导弹后端有大型尾翼、目标导弹总是以侧面对着拦截器


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图3a描述了FM-7(2005年2月)后最近的各次SM-3飞行试验中使用的靶弹
(伊朗和北朝鲜已经成功地证明了它们掌握的)分级技术(级间段的爆破分离:1998年大浦洞1号、2009年银河号;2009年2月Safir运载火箭,2009年3月Sajjil两级固体导弹),与把弹体炸裂成碎块的技术一样。把单级导弹切成多块、把多级火箭的上面级炸裂成碎块,都可以成为有效反制措施

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“不均匀燃烧(chuffing)”:当固体火箭发动机燃尽关机,残余的燃料块可被同时点燃,在壳体内出现一秒内上百次的微小爆炸;这导致剩余燃料、隔离材料等物质被从发动机中排出,它们的尺寸小于6-8英寸。
FTG-06中,固体推进剂火箭上面级发动机意外地释放了的发动机燃料,制造了大量与弹头可比的雷达信号。该雷达“场景数据”被传递给已经编好程以搜索一个“场景”的计算机,由于雷达信号完全出乎意料之外,计算机“场景识别”完全失败,未能确定弹头。 由于产生虚假雷达信号的物体体积均小于弹头,如果雷达能得到适当编程,它是可以去除掉这些小物体的迷惑信号,然后再进行“场景识别”的。但是,如果这些物体是对敌方故意制造出来,具有与弹头相同的长度,或者说弹头本身与预期的大不相同,这种筛选将是不可能的。
据航空和空间技术周刊的文章,GMD拦截器弹上红外传感器成功筛选出弹头。这是可以预期的:排出的碎片比弹头小,而且温度高。弹上红外传感器就是设计来区分这种物体与大型、温度较低的弹头的。但是,IFT-1A(1997年6月)与IFT-2(1998年1月)试验中,2个0.6米直径的气球、2个锥形刚性物体都被红外传感器误认为是弹头。

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MIT林肯实验室: Missile Defense Technology: Can BMD Systems Work?, Eric D. Evans, December 10, 1999, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, EDE-GR32-111Series, 12/9/99
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被删除的诱饵:

==================================================
翻译自:
坚持不懈与美国导弹防御军工科技复合体斗争的Theodore A. Postol教授
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_05/Lewis-Postol

http://web.mit.edu/stgs/pdfs/White_Paper_Associated_With_May_2010_Arms_Control_Today_Article.pdf
(pdf里还有他老人家对X波段雷达、双色红外传感器的评论)

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JK-SETI 发表于 2010-5-19 19:50 | 显示全部楼层
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/world/18missile.html


在采访与一份声明中,五角大楼导弹防御局为SM-3的测试记录进行了强烈的辩护,并表示Dr. Postol和Dr. Lewis的分析从根本上是错误的。“该指控是错误的,”上星期三发言人Richard Lehner说,他说SM-3达到的成绩“是其他许多国防部计划期望达到的。”
即使如此,五角大楼后来承认,在Postol分析的10次飞行试验中,4次都没有装模拟弹头。
......
五角大楼的反驳包括书面材料:MDA现任局长Patrick O’Reilly中将称,所谓的分析“有缺陷的,不准确和误导大众”,并表示所谓的SM-3的失败在事实上都是成功的,“实现了预期的目标”因为拦截器击中的是“预定撞击点几英寸之内”
......
在一系列的电子邮件中,导弹防御局发言人Richard Lehner提供了更多信息。上周三,他说,火箭的解体摧毁了弹头。当被问及MDA是否有证据时,他周四回答说:从传感器的读数“确切地证明了”模拟弹头“已被摧毁,不再是威胁。”
不过,Lehner补充说,在4个测试飞行中靶弹没有携带模拟弹头,而是“一个有配重的头锥。”无弹头的4次试验——包括在分析的10次SM-3拦截之中——有3次较早的和2009年7月的。
......
==========================
IFT用的诱饵:


http://web.mit.edu/stgs/pdfs/Presentation%20to_NAS_Panel_May19,2010_2x1.pdf

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kktt 发表于 2010-5-20 23:17 | 显示全部楼层
http://www.mda.mil/news/10news0005.html

May 18, 2010
Missile Defense Agency Responds to New York Times Article



The May 18 edition of The New York Times contained an article (“Review Cites Flaws in U.S. Antimissile Program”) detailing a study conducted by Dr. Theodore Postol and Dr. George Lewis published in the May issue of Arms Control Today (ACT). The study called into question the test record of the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) sea-based interceptor that is designed to intercept and destroy short- to medium-range ballistic missiles. The ACT article stated that successful intercepts during tests of the SM-3 actually “missed” targets and should not have been assessed as successful.

The Missile Defense Agency strongly refutes this allegation. The SM-3 program is one of the most successful programs within the Department of Defense, with operational interceptors now deployed aboard U.S. Navy ships. These ships range throughout the world’s oceans, providing an effective, reliable defense against short- to medium-range ballistic missiles. An extensive, operationally realistic test program is continuing to further improve and enhance the capabilities of the SM-3 element of the Ballistic Missile Defense System.

For whatever reasons, The New York Times chose not to include information provided to the newspaper by MDA to respond to allegations by Dr. Postol and Dr. Lewis which would have provided accuracy, clarity and context to the article.

Some examples:

“The system is highly fragile and brittle and will intercept warheads only by accident, if ever,” said Dr. Postol…”
FACT: Not included in the Times article from information provided to the reporter that from 1991 through 2010 the Missile Defense Agency has conducted 66 full scale hit-to-kill lethality sled tests and 138 sub-scale hit-to-kill light gas gun tests covering all MDA interceptor types against nuclear, unitary chemical, chemical submunitions, biological bomblets and high-explosive submunition threats. Eighteen of these tests were specifically devoted to the current SM-3 kinetic warhead system. This extensive database of lethality testing has conclusively demonstrated that MDA’s weapon systems are highly lethal against ballistic missile threats when they engage within their accuracy and velocity specifications. After successful completion of early developmental tests, the test program progressed from just “hitting the target” to one of determining lethality and proving the operationally configured Aegis SM-3 Block I and SM-3 Block 1A system. These tests were the MDA’s most comprehensive and realistic test series, resulting in the Operational Test and Evaluation Force’s October 2008 Evaluation Report stating that Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Block 04 3.6 System was operationally effective and suitable for transition to the Navy.

“Even so, the Pentagon later admitted that four of the 10 analyzed flight tests carried no mock warheads at all.”

FACT: As stated to the Times reporter, three of the four tests cited were the very first intercept tests conducted in 2002 using a prototype SM-3. The objective of these early developmental tests was to determine if an SM-3 interceptor launched from an Aegis ship could hit a ballistic missile in flight. In each test the target was intercepted and destroyed. Since they were the very first intercept tests of the SM-3, specific lethality (hitting the warhead) was not a test objective. Target warheads used in missile defense tests are very complex, expensive assets, and since specific lethality wasn’t a test objective, mock warheads were not used in these very early developmental tests. The fourth test cited in the Times article was also not a test of specific lethality. All other SM-3 intercept tests used mock warheads that were threat-representative and extensively instrumented to obtain target data and to determine the extent of their destruction.

“The dispute between the academics and the Pentagon centers on whether it is enough for a speeding interceptor to hit the body of a spent rocket moving through outer space or whether it must hit the attached warhead. Dr. Postol says the SM-3 interceptor must shatter the warhead directly, and public statements of the Pentagon agency seem to suggest that it agrees.  “The interceptors,” the agency Web site says in its basic explanation of antimissile goals, “ram the warhead at a very high closing speed, destroying the target.”

FACT: Although MDA provided extensive information, the Times article failed to mention that the assessment by Dr. Postol and Dr. Lewis examined only tests using “unitary” targets, whereby the warhead and booster rocket do not separate, and represents short-range “SCUD” missile technology. In tests against unitary targets, the SM-3 has been very successful, hitting the target missile at speeds up to 8,000 miles per hour, generating a tremendous amount of energy that caused catastrophic failure of the target missile. The Times article also didn’t mention that five of six intercept tests involving separating targets—when the warhead separates from the booster rocket, and representative of medium-range “No Dong” technology—were very successful, with the SM-3 directly colliding with the target warhead as it traveled through space, a much smaller and challenging target compared with a unitary target.

“The study examined video images that the SM-3 kill vehicle took a split second before striking the target and that the Missile Defense Agency subsequently made public. The analysis looked at 10 tests between 2002 and 2009 — all of which the agency hailed as successful intercepts.”

FACT: Dr. Postol and Dr. Lewis stated in their article that the video and still images of the intercept were the “final” frame before interceptor impact. This isn’t true; they were only images that were publicly released. Although MDA provided this information to the reporter, the Times chose not to report that subsequent sensor views showed exactly where the interceptor collided with the target—within inches of the planned impact point—and that these images were not released to preclude potential adversaries from determining the exact impact point.
JK-SETI 发表于 2010-5-21 00:13 | 显示全部楼层
导弹防御局回应纽约时报文章


五月17日,纽约时报一文中引用了 Ted Postol和George Lewis博士关于现部署于美国海军标准3型导弹(SM-3)试验的评估报告
该海基拦截导弹按设计使用“动能杀伤”技术拦截短程及中程弹道导弹,也就是说,拦截弹直接撞击目标导弹或者弹头,仅靠撞击力摧毁目标。文章作者所称的“导弹拦截在没有成功的情况下却报导成功”是错误的,而所提供的数据是有误,不准确和具有误导性的。
在每次成功的拦截试验中,目标导弹都被宙斯盾/标准3型导弹防御系统(Aegis BMD/SM-3 system)拦截弹的动能所摧毁。每个目标导弹(弹头弹体有分离的,有不分离的)都被“动能杀伤器”所击中。
Postol 和 Lewis的评估显然是基于一些已公布的标准3型弹上传感器所拍摄的照片,和(他们的理解中)所假定的拦截导弹的攻击点。然而,他们是无法得知未向公众公布的(显示目标导弹被完全摧毁的)遥测数据以及拦截发生后的传感器视图,因为这些会使得潜在对手知道目标导弹被攻击的部位。
实际上,在  www.mda.mil/news/gallery_aegis.html可以看到公开的视频,其中可见来自拦截导弹和空中传感器所拍摄的红外照片,而这些照片显示目标导弹被完全摧毁了。
文章作者所称的“未命中”的试验都是短程“弹头、弹体不分离”目标。导弹防御局“成功拦截”的描述才是正确的,因为试验都成功地拦截了目标。从收集到遥测数据的最终分析显示,拦截导弹击中目标弹体或者弹头的部位都在预定撞击点几英寸之内,这样可以对多种弹头造成最大的破坏。
于2002年进行的最初三次斯盾导弹防御试验(FM-2,FM-3,FM-4)在 Postol和Lewis的评估中也被称为“未命中”。这些试验尝试使用标准3系统原型拦截弹,而目的也仅是确定海上发射、使用“动能杀伤”技术的标准三型新拦截弹能摧毁弹道导弹。
因为是首次使用原型弹拦截,昂贵的模拟弹头并未使用,因为明确的杀伤能力并不是试验的目的,试验目的仅是击中目标导弹而已。与 Postol和 Lewis所称相反,这3次试验都是成功击中并摧毁了“弹头、弹体不分离”的弹道导弹。这为实际使用宙斯盾舰在海上拦截弹道导弹提供了成功的经验。
在早期的开发性试验成功之后,试验项目从单纯的“击中目标”发展为决定所造成的伤害、验证可实战的宙斯盾标准3型Block和标准3型Block 1A。这一系列试验是导弹防御局最为全面和最具有真实性的试验,直接影响了作战测试评估组的2008年10月评估报告,该报告指出宙斯盾反导Block 04 3.6系统具有高效的可操作性,适合移交海军使用。
2002年以来,在16次各项试验中共发射了19枚标准3型导弹,成功拦截了最有威胁代表性的全尺寸目标以及更棘手的小型弹头和全尺寸分离弹头。还需要提到的就是,机动宙斯盾弹道导弹防御标准3型系统曾成功摧毁了一个失效的美国卫星。导弹击以历史性的高速度击中了卫星上的正确部位——危险的燃料箱,使其失效,而在这之前没有任何导弹防御系统可以做到。
从1991到2010年,导弹防御局共进行了66次全尺寸动能杀伤破坏力试验和138次缩比动能杀伤轻气炮试验,范围涵盖了所有的导弹拦截器类型:从核弹头到化学单弹头,化学子母弹头,生物子母弹头到高爆子母弹头。其中十八项试验特别针对了目前的标准3型武器系统。数据库中破坏力试验的结果明确显示了导弹防御局的武器系统——在指定精度和速度范围内——能高效地应对弹道导弹的威胁。
文章作者关于标准3型的研究仅引用了未分离弹头目标的试验,而却故意避开了成功了6次分离弹头拦截试验(其中5次成功),而拦截体积更小、速度更高的“弹头分离”导弹要困难得多。他们也未提到,事实上该系统成功拦截了比目前敌方导弹小得多的目标,而且取得了许多其他项目没有取得的优异成绩。


http://www.dodlive.mil/index.php ... york-times-article/
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http://allthingsnuclear.org/post ... not-a-silver-bullet

忧思科学家联盟也参与进来:
......
“The physical issue here is that if the small kill vehicle hits an empty missile casing at hypervelocity speed, it is likely to punch through it like a bullet through an empty tin can (the speed of the kill vehicle is some 20 times the speed of a bullet). In doing so it will jar the missile body, but this jarring is unlikely to be sufficient to destroy a hardened warhead. Because a warhead is designed to survive the rigors of boost and reentry phases, it is necessarily hardened.  ”......
贝尔纳多特 发表于 2010-5-21 07:47 | 显示全部楼层
当初这个标准-3的测试过程,是从整体(弹头弹体不分离)的目标导弹开始的(这个应该是一开始计划好的),后来扩大到分离后的弹头。

所谓的加固弹头不知是否是指侵彻型的?
东方红 发表于 2010-5-21 11:46 | 显示全部楼层
当年里根政府的星球大战计划比这个还玄乎,美国人吹惯了牛皮,闪了舌头不打紧,丢了性命可赔不起啊。
在可预见的将来,俄罗斯战略核突击能力仍然对美国构成致命威胁。
JK-SETI 发表于 2010-6-5 20:58 | 显示全部楼层
6月6日,中午12点-下午4点,PDT(太平洋夏季时间),美国导弹防御局将进行GBI试验。

http://fcnl.org/NuclearCalendar/
Lsquirrel 发表于 2010-6-6 10:01 | 显示全部楼层
http://www.vandenberg.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123207659

by Staff
30th Space Wing Public Affairs

6/3/2010 - VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif.  -- The 30th Space Wing and Missile Defense Agency are scheduled to conduct a flight test of a modified ground-based interceptor between noon and 4 p.m. June 6.

The modified interceptor is a two-stage variant of the operationally-configured three-stage design now deployed at Vandenberg AFB.

This test is solely for data collection purposes and system performance evaluation. There is no target launch or intercept attempt for this mission.
Lsquirrel 发表于 2010-6-7 10:24 | 显示全部楼层
发射成功
Vandenberg launches ground-based interceptor

by Staff
30th Space Wing Public Affairs

6/6/2010 - VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif.  -- The 30th Space Wing and Missile Defense Agency launched a ground-based interceptor at 3:25 p.m. June 6 from North Vandenberg. The launch was a flight test for a two-stage variant of the operationally-configured three-stage interceptor now deployed at Vandenberg AFB.

The test was solely for data collection purposes and system performance evaluation. There was no target launch or intercept attempt for this mission.

"Executing a successful launch like this requires a great deal of work from many people in various organizations and Team Vandenberg performed magnificently," said Col. Richard Boltz, 30th Space Wing commander and Launch Decision Authority for today's launch.

This launch was Col. Boltz's first as wing commander; however, the 22-year career Air Force officer is no stranger to the spacelift mission, having previously served at Vandenberg as a mission flight control officer in the mid 1990's.

"It's great to be back in the launch business after being away from it for 15 years."

This was the first missile defense program launch from Vandenberg AFB's Launch Facility 24, which was recently upgraded to support missile defense testing. Previous interceptor launches have been conducted at nearby Launch Facility 23.
kktt 发表于 2010-6-12 23:58 | 显示全部楼层
阿联酋将购买THAAD

[据MDAA网站近日报道] 美国洛克希德·马丁公司称,阿拉伯联合酋长国(UAE)距离购买美国末段高空区域防御(THAAD) 导弹系统的计划又近了一步,此次交易价值估计为70亿美元。这项交易将标志美国THAAD系统的首次出口,并加强美国与阿联酋之间的联系。
  
  洛·马公司一位主管空中导弹防御战略的负责人称,双方就敏感技术的谈判取得进展之后,阿联酋可能会在2010年夏天收到一份来自美国政府的协议书。 
 
  THAAD导弹不携带弹头,而是依靠动能撞击,在150千米的高空摧毁目标。阿联酋准备部署基于爱国者的导弹防御,THAAD系统将为之再添一层保护。
  
  美国国防安全合作署(DSCA)称,阿联酋可以获得3个THAAD的“点火单元”,总共装备147发反弹道导弹、4套雷达组合、6个点火控制通信站和9个发射台。 THAAD系统还在研制中,将于7月在夏威夷考艾岛进行第14次飞行试验。
  
  这项交易被视为对外军售,即阿联酋是直接向美国政府而不是洛·马公司购买,该公司是此项计划的主要防务承包商。雷神公司也是主要参与者,负责提供雷达组件。
  
  THAAD系统还在研制中,将于7月在夏威夷考艾岛进行第14次飞行试验。
  
  根据美国国会研究服务处的统计,海湾国家在1988年到2007年间采购了价值880亿美元的武器装备。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所称,2009年,阿联酋成为世界第四大武器进口国。
shaolin1254 发表于 2010-6-24 00:25 | 显示全部楼层
美国计划在中东部署第2个X波段雷达  

新闻发布时间:2010-06-12


  [据英国路透社近日报道]美国计划在中东建造第二个X波段雷达基地(目前在以色列内盖夫沙漠已经设有一个X波段雷达基地),这是对小布什政府首先提出并大力推进的政策的延续,将有助于更好地协调使用区域防御用的爱国者-3和末端高空区域防御(THAAD)设施。
  
  近期爱国者-3系统的买家(据称更多未来的采购已在计划中)包括巴林、科威特、卡塔尔以及阿联酋。
  
  一个相连的区域导弹防御伞将帮助对抗来自伊朗洲际弹道导弹系统的威胁,这套防御体系将包括地面的爱国者-3和THAAD系统,以及附近水域的近海宙斯盾导弹驱逐舰。

  但是,究竟在该地区的哪个国家部署X波段雷达尚不明朗。(中国航天工程咨询中心 王宜晓 许红英 侯丹)  

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kktt 发表于 2010-6-27 03:47 | 显示全部楼层
Inside the Ring

By Bill Gertz

7:26 p.m., Wednesday, June 23, 2010

SM-3 upgrade

The commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command was in Washington recently and told a Capitol Hill gathering of defense specialists the Navy's current SM-3 anti-missile interceptor, the centerpiece of the Obama administration's regional missile defense plan, is being souped up so that it can eventually knock out a long-range missile.

Army Lt. Gen. Kevin T. Campbell, the commander, was asked to compare the Army's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, with the Navy's SM-3 missile interceptor, which has greater range and can hit targets in space.

"Now there's probably greater potential in the SM-3 missile for some follow-on work that the Missile Defense Agency is planning, so that that missile may become in the deeper future an anti-ICBM capable missile," Gen. Campbell said, adding that the THAAD is designed to provide defenses against missiles at a lower level of their flight.

Asked whether the Pentagon would ever deploy interceptors in space, Gen. Campbell said: "I don't think the country is ready to go there, personally. But yeah, I would think in the future, if we had to get to that point because we found that our terrestrial systems were so limited, I suppose that would be assessed again and a determination made."

Gen. Campbell said new sensors are being developed as part of the administration's shift toward regional missile defenses and away from systems that can knock out long-range ICBMs. The plan, he said, calls for putting infrared sensors on unmanned aerial vehicles that can be used to detect missile launches and transmit the data to missile interceptors and other defense systems that would knock them out.

Additionally, the Pentagon recently put in orbit two new satellites that are the first step in an advanced missile launch detection system, he said at a June 17 breakfast meeting sponsored by the National Defense University Foundation and National Defense Industrial Association.

"What is proposed is that we have an infrared capability on an unmanned aerial vehicle, and that that would be a sensor suite that would be employed to support a regional architecture," Gen. Campbell said.

The new system would allow missile defenses to plug in more sensors or missile interceptors or other "shooters," he said. The space and airborne systems would augment ground-based sensor systems currently in place and add to the capabilities of the system.
kktt 发表于 2010-6-30 19:10 | 显示全部楼层
10-NEWS-0008
June 29, 2010
THAAD System Intercepts Target in Successful Missile Defense Flight Test



The Missile Defense Agency and U.S. Army soldiers of the 6th Air Defense Artillery Brigade from Fort Bliss, Texas, successfully conducted an intercept test for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense element of the nation’s Ballistic Missile Defense System today. A target missile was launched at approximately 9:32 p.m. Hawaii time, June 28 (3:32 a.m. EDT, June 29), and about five minutes later a THAAD interceptor missile was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) off the island of Kauai, Hawaii. Preliminary indications are that planned flight test objectives were achieved.

The test involved the intercept of a short-range unitary target in the endoatmosphere (inside the earth’s atmosphere). The target, representing a short-range ballistic missile threat, was launched from an at-sea mobile launch platform located in the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii. Upon acquiring and tracking the target, the THAAD system developed a fire control solution and launched an interceptor missile, which acquired and successfully intercepted the target missile. The intercept occurred at the lowest altitude to date for the THAAD interceptor missile, which has the capability to engage targets both inside and outside the earth’s atmosphere.

Soldiers of the 6th Air Defense Artillery Brigade of Fort Bliss, Texas, conducted launcher, fire control and radar operations, using tactics, techniques, and procedures developed by the U.S. Army Air Defense School. Soldiers operating the equipment were not aware of actual target launch time. Also following the engagement, test personnel used the Simulation-Over-Live Driver (SOLD) software system to inject multiple simulated threat scenarios into the THAAD radar. This exercised THAAD’s capability to track and engage a mass raid of enemy ballistic missiles.

Several missile defense assets and emerging technologies observed the launch and gathered data for future analysis. Participants included the Command and Control, Battle Management and Communications (C2BMC) system and elements of the U.S. Army’s PATRIOT system. The PATRIOT system, located at PMRF, conducted engagement coordination with THAAD and conducted upper tier debris mitigation exercises during the intercept engagement.

This was the seventh successful intercept in seven attempts for the operationally-configured THAAD system. Operational elements of the Ballistic Missile Defense System are currently deployed, protecting the nation, our allies and friends against limited ballistic missile attack. The system continues to undergo development and testing to provide a robust layered defense against ballistic missiles of all ranges in all phases of flight.

The THAAD Program is managed by the Missile Defense Agency in Washington, D.C., and executed by the THAAD Project Office in Huntsville, Ala.
Lsquirrel 发表于 2010-7-30 09:55 | 显示全部楼层

美国弹道导弹防御系统现状,2010年7月发布

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kktt 发表于 2010-8-2 17:03 | 显示全部楼层
末段高空区域防御雷达成功完成太平洋导弹防御试验任务

新闻发布时间:2010-08-02

  [据美通社近日报道] 雷神公司制造的末段高空区域防御(THAAD)雷达在最近的THAAD综合飞行试验中成功完成任务。此次试验于2010年6月29日在位于夏威夷的太平洋导弹试验场进行,由美国导弹防御局和洛·马公司(THAAD主承包商和系统集成商)联合实施。
  
  此次试验标志着第七次成功拦截代表威胁的目标。THAAD雷达,也称AN/TPY-2移动X波段雷达,达到了全部的试验目的:捕获目标、鉴别致命目标、为射击控制提供跟踪和鉴别数据,以及与飞行中的THAAD拦截器的通信。由雷神和洛·马共同开发的射击控制软件也运行顺利,实现与目标交战以及发射程序初始化。
  
    THAAD雷达为支持大气层内低空拦截发挥了重要的捕获、跟踪和鉴别致命目标的作用。此次试验是对战术形态下THAAD系统的雷达、发射台、拦截器和射击控制全面综合性能的又一次成功的演示验证。AN/TPY-2是一个相控阵雷达,能在极远距离搜寻、探测威胁,对目标实施分类、鉴别和精确跟踪。
shaolin1254 发表于 2010-8-22 16:41 | 显示全部楼层
诺斯罗普•格鲁门公司和美国导弹防御局完成弹道导弹防御系统全程模拟  

新闻发布时间:2010-08-21


    [据美国全球安全网2010年8月18日报道]  美国导弹防御局(MDA)和诺斯罗普•格鲁门公司,已经对2009年弹道导弹防御系统(BMDS)性能评估做出了最终验证和确认。这次评估是一个端到端的系统级模拟,旨在分析不同的设定场景下,BMDS与雷达、通信网络以及拦截器的一体化情况。

    诺•格公司,作为导弹防御一体化运行中心(MDIOC)的首要承包商,领导团队进行了规模空前的一体化仿真模拟,该模拟展现了BMDS从敌弹发射到敌弹被杀伤器拦截的完整BMDS过程。
  
  “2009年性能评估(PA09)非常成功。”诺•格信息系统部空中与导弹防御系统副主席凯伦·威廉姆斯说,“通过严格而缜密的一体化过程,超过2500次的试验,我们创建出了一个可以应对36种情境的基本构造方案。PA09是为美国作战指挥员提供BMDS性能精确预测的关键一步。”

    由于对于地面和飞行试验来说,BMDS的构造方案、拦截情境和导弹威胁有太多种可能的组合方式,对BMDS性能的评估依赖于利用高保真模型与仿真对系统的能力作出评估。在全面的仿真模拟中,PA09将各种元模型的能力综合到一起,以此来分析BMDS在应对战略层面的威胁和战区/区域层面的威胁时将如何表现。

    PA09中涉及的BMDS元模型包括天基红外系统,先进爱国者能力,末端高空区域防御,“宙斯盾”弹道导弹防御,陆基中段防御,以及指挥、控制、战斗管理、通信系统。PA09成功设定并分析的36个场景包括4个数字陆地测试再现场景和3个数字飞行测试再现场景。PA09是在位于美国科罗拉多州科泉市(Colorado Springs, Colo.)的导弹防御一体化运行中心(MDIOC)进行的。
  
  导弹防御一体化运行中心是美国国防部辖下最重要的导弹防御中心,从事美国BMDS系统的集成、部署和运行。几乎所有BMDS系统级别的建模仿真、地面试验、飞行试验、演习、培训、任务危机处理以及相关的分析工作都在该中心进行,或由该中心支持或监控。(中国航天工程咨询中心 张贤明 侯丹)  

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JK-SETI 发表于 2010-8-30 12:52 | 显示全部楼层

“Sea-Based X-Band Radar (SBX) Sourcebook”
海基X波段雷达资源汇总,第一册。337页,
更新至2007年7月24日。
http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/sbx.pdf


“An SBX Sourcebook, Volume II”
海基X波段雷达资源汇总,第二册。140页。
更新至2010年8月1日。
http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/sbx-v2.pdf

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JK-SETI 发表于 2010-9-5 01:09 | 显示全部楼层
...即使在美国反导计划野心勃勃的2000年,美国国家弹道导弹防御系统的规划目标,到2015年的第三阶段也只是部署250枚陆基中段反导拦截弹,可以应付50枚单弹头洲际导弹加简单诱饵或是20枚单弹头洲际导弹加100个高级诱饵的攻击。...
Lsquirrel  发表于 2010-01-14 11:16:55


这个说法来自防务信息中心(Center for Defense Information,CDI)2000年9月的《National Missile Defense: What Does It All Mean?》,第16页。
http://www.missilethreat.com/rep ... dwhatdoesitmean.pdf
而CDI的信息来源是John Holum’s “Talking Points.”


John Holum是最后一任军控裁军局(ACDA)局长,1999年ACDA并入国务院后任负责军控与国际安全的代理副国务卿。2000年一月19日到21日,John Holum率领美国代表团在日内瓦与俄罗斯代表团(团长是Yuri Kapralov,俄外交部军控司司长)。谈判涉及START-III,会上美方向俄方提交了一系列文件,还有美方的“谈话重点”。这些文件被翻译成俄文,结果有人将俄文版交给了《原子科学家公报》,《原子科学家公报》把他们再翻译回来,发表出来。
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines/042900-02.htm
其中关于NMD效率的字句如下:



In this case Russia's response to an assault would obviously be to send about a thousand warheads, together with two to three times more decoys, accompanied by other advanced defense penetration aids.
(面对核打击,俄罗斯可以采取“预警后发射”的策略)发射1000枚左右的弹头,伴随着2-3倍的假弹头,还有其他先进突防装置。
Moreover, a two-region system would enable us to maintain an effective single layer with exo-atmospheric capability to intercept several dozen single-warhead missiles accompanied by sophisticated defense penetration aids launched from North Korea or the Near East/Persian Gulf regions.
两个阵地的反导系统可以使美国拥有有效的单层外大气层防御能力,拦截从朝鲜或中东/波斯湾地区发射的几十枚(several dozen)单弹头导弹——伴随有先进突防装置
Ultimately, when a second deployment position is added, there will be 200 or so interceptor missiles. This will be enough to knock out several dozen warheads accompanied by advanced defense penetration aids, but inadequate to counter a larger Russian counterstrike.
最终,当第二个阵地投入使用,共有200枚左右(200 or so)的拦截器。这足以拦截几十枚弹头(several dozen warheads),伴随有先进突防装置,但不足以应对俄罗斯较大规模的核反击。
In accordance with START-3 levels proposed for the USA and Russia, Russian ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles clearly would carry more than 1,000 warheads accompanied by twice that many decoys and defense penetration aids.
根据美俄商议中的START-3军力削减水平线,俄罗斯的ICBM与潜射弹道导弹将携带超过1000枚弹头,伴随有两倍以上数量的假弹头还有其他先进突防装置。
In view of the operational realities of the defense of a large area, a limited strategic missile defense system consisting of 100 non-nuclear interceptor missiles will be able in the best case to destroy 20-25 warheads on impact with comparatively primitive defense penetration aids. Two hundred interceptor missiles could destroy 40-50 warheads.
鉴于广域防御作战的各种局限,100枚非核拦截弹的有限战略反导系统在最佳条件下将能摧毁伴随有简单诱饵的20-25枚弹头。200枚拦截弹将可以摧毁40-50枚来袭弹头。

=======================

所以,根据John Holum的谈话重点应该是:C-3(250枚拦截器)条件下的拦截能力为50枚单弹头导弹,加上高级诱饵(具体数量不明,因为有“我们不认为将俄罗斯反击能力减少20-50枚弹头会对其战略威慑产生实质影响”一句,可以估计高级诱饵数量会达到100-150个)

另:根据Dean A. Wilkening, 2000年五月的《Ballistic-Missile Defense and Strategic Stability》(第44页)探测追踪识别概率0.995,拦截器SSPK达到到0.75的条件下,100枚拦截器将摧毁25枚弹头,或10枚真弹头伴随20枚高级诱饵。把这个结果乘以2,也许是CDI的来源。
pighead~o~ 发表于 2010-9-11 17:50 | 显示全部楼层
土鳖的094要加紧了~~~~~~
firstkinger 发表于 2010-9-11 22:38 | 显示全部楼层
请问kktt老大
THADD或标准3上拦截器有详细的介绍吗?
RCS是液体燃料还是固体燃料,感觉标准3从准备到发射的时间很短,要是液体的话
推进剂要一直保存在弹体里,那就是说实现了推进剂预包装?
要是固体的,固体能实现拦截弹的变轨吗
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