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[战略战术导弹] 朝鲜潜射导弹

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☆温内图☆ 发表于 2015-5-10 19:28 | 显示全部楼层
追求真理 发表于 2015-5-10 18:33
绝不是朝鲜自娱自乐的东西 朝鲜这已经是第三次试验了

导弹是液体的,能有多少实战性能?还不如巨浪1号
有合适的潜艇么?高尔夫级也不适合发射这个
弹头最多是常规的,没证据表明朝鲜掌握了和弹头小型化
武器研究都是有一定的规律的,谁都不能例外
说它自娱自乐,是因为它根本无法投入实战
即便是有了潜艇,能出港么?
美日韩联合反潜,就是中国也够喝一壶的
追求真理 发表于 2015-5-10 23:35 | 显示全部楼层
☆温内图☆ 发表于 2015-5-10 19:28
导弹是液体的,能有多少实战性能?还不如巨浪1号
有合适的潜艇么?高尔夫级也不适合发射这个
弹头最多 ...

朝鲜的潜射导弹是山寨自SSN6 ssn6是液体潜射导弹 难道你的意思ssn6没有多少实战性能?
☆温内图☆ 发表于 2015-5-11 09:03 | 显示全部楼层
追求真理 发表于 2015-5-10 23:35
朝鲜的潜射导弹是山寨自SSN6 ssn6是液体潜射导弹 难道你的意思ssn6没有多少实战性能?

你得看是谁用
苏联可以跑到北极下面去发射,朝鲜的潜艇能出港么?
头像被屏蔽
lfx160219 发表于 2015-5-11 11:03 | 显示全部楼层
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
wsl2005 发表于 2015-5-11 17:36 | 显示全部楼层

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追求真理 发表于 2015-5-12 01:03 | 显示全部楼层
JK-SETI 发表于 2015-5-12 07:05 | 显示全部楼层
从水下平台发射,弹射出水后点火飞行了很短的距离

http://freebeacon.com/national-s ... rwater-missile-test


U.S. Spy Agencies Closely Watched N. Korea Underwater Missile Test

Bill Gertz

Washington Free Beacon

May 11, 2015

U.S. intelligence agencies closely monitored North Korea’s test of a new submarine-launched ballistic missile and were anticipating the launch for several days, according to U.S. officials.

The missile test Saturday of a purported North Korean missile, known as the KN-11, was closely watched by U.S. intelligence monitoring equipment, including satellites, aircraft, and observation ships, said officials familiar with intelligence reports.

U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that the missile test was more of an ejection test—a launch from underwater that fires the missile out of a simulated launch tube into the air. The missile then ignited its engine and flew a short distance, the officials said.

U.S. officials do not believe the missile was launched from a submerged submarine.
 楼主| kktt 发表于 2015-5-12 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
pooh 发表于 2015-5-12 21:01 来自航空航天港手机版! | 显示全部楼层
看尾迹很象固体燃料的推进器
poweru235 发表于 2015-5-12 21:11 | 显示全部楼层
看了大图 不是ps 如果不是摆拍 正恩胆子还是很大的  另外也说明这次只是出水的验证 并不是实际飞行试验
 楼主| kktt 发表于 2015-5-13 14:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kktt 于 2015-5-13 14:14 编辑

美军事专家:朝鲜近日进行的弹道导弹试射并非潜射

韩联社华盛顿5月12日电 由美国专门分析朝鲜动向的网站“38North”主办的视频会议12日在华盛顿举行,美国一名朝鲜军事问题专家在会上表示,根据本月10日拍摄的卫星照片推测,朝鲜近日试射的“潜射导弹”(SLBM)并非从潜艇射出,很可能是用水下驳船发射的。

该人士指出,潜射导弹试验可分为三个阶段,即地面试射、弹射试验及潜射试验。朝鲜此次进行的可能是利用驳船的弹射试验。这表明,与朝鲜的主张不同,朝鲜的潜射导弹研发水平仍处于初期阶段。

该人士还表示,朝鲜的潜射导弹技术水平究竟达到什么程度尚不清楚,但可以肯定的是,这显然是“新兴的威胁”(emerging threat)。他还指出,朝鲜公开的导弹试射照片很有可能是利用PS等图像处理软件合成的,朝鲜很善于“伪装战术”。

据朝中社5月9日报道,朝鲜战略潜艇成功进行了弹道导弹水下试射。朝鲜最高领导人金正恩观看了试射过程。报道称,这次试射证明朝鲜潜艇发射的弹道导弹各项指标完全达到最新军事科技要求。(完)

http://chinese.yonhapnews.co.kr/ ... 50513002000881.HTML
 楼主| kktt 发表于 2015-5-13 14:15 | 显示全部楼层
朝鲜潜射弹道导弹试验 韩美评价差距大
蔡秉建 驻华盛顿记者 ,郑镛洙 记者 | 2015.05.13 11:36

对于朝鲜潜射弹道导弹(SLBM)发射试验,韩美两国政府对威胁程度和技术水平作出的评价存在明显差距。

美国国防部当局人士5月11日(当地时间)接受法新社采访时表示“朝鲜进行的发射试验不是弹道导弹试验”,给于了贬低评价。该当局人士针对朝鲜的可发射潜射弹道导弹(SLBM)水平表示“朝鲜并未表现出技术取得划时代进展的样子”,“虽然在开发相关技术,但目前还不能立刻形成威胁”。

法新社还报道称“部分美国专家认为,导弹只射出了数百米,还不能算做完全的飞行试验”。也就是说,朝鲜的SLBM技术并不像朝鲜主张的那样取得了巨大进展。

相对于韩国军方认为朝鲜最早可能会在2017年末、最晚也能够在5年内利用新浦(2000吨)级潜艇搭载1发SLBM的预测,美方的分析表现出了慎重的态度。朝鲜5月9日通过《劳动新闻》主张,在国防委员会第一委员长金正恩的注视下,水中发射试验获得了圆满成功。

国防部长韩民求5月11日出席国会国防委员会表示“虽然还处于起步阶段,但朝鲜的SLBM发射试验确实取得了成功”,“发射体射出了150多米”。

一位了解朝鲜SLBM发射试验情况的韩国国防部当局人士5月12日也表示“朝鲜在潜艇上发射了去除弹药和减少助推剂的模拟导弹”,“推进体在水面打火启动的升压加力(Boosting)阶段也获得了成功”,再次确认了朝鲜试验成功的情况。对于韩美之间评价不一的原因,该当局人士表示“韩国和美国军方当局根据同样的情报进行了共同分析”,“美国当局者的评价重在说明朝鲜没有发射真正的导弹,因此双方才会产生误会”。

也就是说,如果用真正的导弹进行发射试验,意味着朝鲜可以马上将其转化为战斗力,但朝鲜试验用的只是“模拟弹”,因此韩方认为朝鲜试验成功的说法无可厚非。美方主张朝鲜还需要克服很多技术难关才能制作出能够打击到目标的真正导弹并将其搭载到潜艇上,也有其道理。

韩国政府当局者表示“我们多年前就得到朝鲜正在制造SLBM的情报,一直在密切关注”,“朝鲜在潜艇上设置了可以发射SLBM的垂直发射管,并成功发射了模拟弹,但是否已经制造出真正的导弹,还无法确认”。

美国保守倾向的网络媒体《华盛顿自由灯塔》报道称,美国情报当局出动人工卫星、航空器、飞行船等设备观看了发射场面,与韩国军方当局主张的提前得到朝鲜发射消息并动用人工卫星等自主情报资产进行了观看如出一辙。

韩国中央日报中文网

http://chinese.joins.com/gb/arti ... l&art_id=135146
 楼主| kktt 发表于 2015-5-13 14:22 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kktt 于 2015-5-13 14:28 编辑

韩推进“水中杀伤链” 应对朝鲜潜射弹道导弹
申容昊·郑墉洙记者 | 2015.05.13 10:28

韩美两国为应对朝鲜的潜射弹道导弹(SLBM)威胁,决定大幅强化反潜能力。

5月12日 ,韩联合参谋本部议长崔润喜和韩美联合司令官柯蒂斯·斯卡帕罗蒂(Curtis Scaparrotti)会面,就对潜射弹道导弹的应对方案进行商讨。韩军相关负责人表示“两人的对话是商讨机密问题,因此具体内容不能公开,但决定共同应对朝鲜的潜艇威胁”。另一位当局人士强调称“将在韩美两国为应对朝核与导弹而正在构想的‘4D概念’中加入朝鲜潜艇威胁”,“我们计划完善依靠4D概念的探测能力、防御能力、潜艇对战能力”。“4D”是指“防御(Defence)”、“探测(Detect)”、“干扰(Disrupt)”、“破坏(Destroy)”,是打造防御计划,探测、追踪和破坏的一种作战计划。

特别是如果朝鲜潜射弹道导弹威胁逐渐显现,韩军当局还决定将在为应对朝鲜核与导弹而正在构建的杀伤链和韩国型导弹防御体系(KAMD)系统中纳入水下威胁。韩国防部高层当局人士表示“我们计划扩大作战范围,将杀伤链和KAMD作战范围不只限于朝鲜地面,还包括韩半岛附近海域”,“我们将会强化潜射弹道导弹和对潜艇战能力”,这意味着将会构建一旦朝鲜出现使用导弹的征兆就先发制人使其瘫痪,将用于拦截所发射导弹的KAMD概念适用于水中的一种“水下杀伤链”。

韩国防部当局人士表示“韩美两国通过六个军事卫星(DSP)和高空无人侦察机等对朝鲜军事设施进行24小时监控”,“正如潜艇也有移动路线,我们拥有在拒绝作战区域(预想敌人移动的地点)水下进行打击的方法”。接着,他表示“我们潜艇还有追踪朝鲜潜艇,进行事前防御的方法”。也就是说,将会研究现在追加引进正集中在陆地监视的对炮兵探测雷达,监视整个韩半岛海域,并将潜艇或舰艇的声呐也更换为大马力的方案。

但有人指出,军队当局发布的应对计划是出于将应对从陆地发射往空中的导弹单纯适用于水下作战的概念,现实中拦截潜射弹道导弹并不容易。一位要求匿名的预备役韩军将军表示“冷战时代,美国和苏联最警惕的武器就是搭载核武器的潜艇”,“虽然可以设定计划,但如果考虑到天安舰在无人察觉的情况下遭受攻击这一点,发现潜艇并对其进行防御在现实中并不容易”。

朴槿惠总统在当天上午国务会议之后召开了外交安保关系长官会议,这在今年还是第一次。在大约80分钟的会议上,朴总统强调称“朝鲜开发潜射弹道导弹不仅是对韩半岛,同时也是妨碍东亚稳定的严重挑战”,“如果完善我们正在构建的杀伤链和潜射弹道导弹,就能充分进行应对,因此要全力准备应对策略”。朴总统还指示称“如果朝鲜发动挑衅,就要果断进行应对”。

韩国中央日报中文网

========

韩军推进拦截朝鲜SLBM的“水下杀伤链”
庾龙源/梁昇植 朝鲜日报记者

据悉,随着朝鲜潜射导弹导弹(SLBM)在2-3年内用于实战的可能性增大,韩美两国树立了方针,计划推进包括先发打击停靠在基地里的朝鲜潜艇、或在SLBM发射后实施拦截的方案等在内的韩美联合“水下杀伤链(Kill Chain)”。

合同参谋议长崔润喜和驻韩美军司令官兼韩美联合司令官柯蒂斯·斯卡帕罗蒂12日在韩美联合司令部进行会晤,讨论了共同应对朝鲜SLBM威胁的方案。据悉,当天讨论的方案包括加强美国间谍卫星及宙斯盾驱逐舰支援等内容。这是由于有批评认为,凭借现有的应对朝鲜地面弹道导弹威胁的杀伤链及KAMD(韩国型导弹防御)体系,无法应对朝鲜SLBM的威胁。

朴槿惠总统12日在青瓦台参加国务会议之后,主持了外交安保长官会议,她指示说:“朝鲜开发了潜射弹道导弹,这不仅是对韩半岛,还是阻碍东亚稳定的严峻挑战”,“面对朝鲜导弹的威胁,对我们构筑的杀伤链和KAMD进行完善,就充分有可能做出应对,要全力树立对应之策”。据悉,预定于本月底在新加坡举行的亚洲安全峰会的韩美、韩美日国防部长会谈上,韩国国防部将以朝鲜SLBM作为议题。朝鲜SLBM问题,成为了和美国、日本等国家共同应对的国际性事件。

据悉,目前军方当局正在构想的“水下杀伤链”大致包括3个阶段:第一阶段是在朝鲜SLBM潜艇停靠在基地或起航后进行打击;第二阶段是探明侵入水下的潜艇后进行攻击;第三阶段是在朝鲜潜艇发射SLBM之后,探明并实施拦截的方案。

军方当局认为,由于朝鲜潜艇进入海底后就很难探测,在基地停靠时或起航之后进行击破是最有效的方法。潜艇停靠在基地的时候,可以从地面或韩国舰艇、潜艇上发射玄武-3、青龙-2、青龙-3等巡航(Cruise)导弹实施打击,或从F-15K等战斗机发射远程空对地导弹实施打击。

朝鲜潜艇起航后,韩国214级潜艇和美军第七舰队的核动力攻击型潜艇可以承担打击任务。如果朝鲜潜艇进入韩国东海或南海,韩国海军的P-3C海上预警机(16架)和山猫直升机、韩美的宙斯盾驱逐舰等,在跟踪并探明后,可以发射红鲨、蓝鲨鱼雷等实施攻击。

朝鲜潜艇发射SLBM时,韩国军方可以通过宙斯盾的雷达(最大探测距离为1000公里)或地面的绿松雷达(最大探测距离为750公里)进行探测。军方当局正在讨论再引进一台绿松雷达,用于监视后方地区的方案。探明后,由美国海军宙斯盾驱逐舰的SM-3负责发射拦截导弹。

然而有批评认为,仅依靠水下杀伤链来完美应对朝鲜SLGM的威胁,在现实上是不可能的。由于潜艇出航时很隐秘,很难实施先发打击,长期埋伏在朝鲜基地前面也并非易事。军方有关人士表示:“东海水深很深,很难在水下探明朝鲜潜艇后进行攻击”,“总不能把负责拦截SLBM的美军宙斯盾驱逐舰一直部署在东海上吧?”

军方当局表示,在水下杀伤链计划的同时,还在讨论依据应对朝鲜核弹及导弹威胁的“4D作战概念”,完善探测能力、防御能力、对潜艇作战能力的方案。4D概念是2013年韩美联合司令官斯卡帕罗蒂在一次演讲中提出的,包括“防御(Defense)、侦查(Detect)、干扰(Disrupt)、破坏(Destroy)”的过程。

☞杀伤链(Kill Chain)

在朝鲜核弹/导弹攻击之前,韩国军方首先探明并实施先行打击的系统。
 楼主| kktt 发表于 2015-5-13 14:23 | 显示全部楼层
kktt 发表于 2015-5-13 14:22
韩推进“水中杀伤链” 应对朝鲜潜射弹道导弹
申容昊·郑墉洙记者 | 2015.05.13 10:28

美韩强化反潜能力,对于北海舰队的中国导弹核潜艇也是威胁
JK-SETI 发表于 2015-5-13 15:11 | 显示全部楼层
kktt 发表于 2015-5-13 14:23
美韩强化反潜能力,对于北海舰队的中国导弹核潜艇也是威胁

SSBN本来就面临着巨大的威胁,ROK这一点增量也不算什么,不显著。这种情况就跟我国对待朝鲜的核能力/投送能力一样:本来就有一点,再让朝鲜增长一点,也不算什么。只要朝鲜的核武器能力/投送能力在我国眼中没有“跨过红线”一说,美韩日的应对能力也就会继续玩“相应地逐步增长”————————除非我方公开对美韩日应对能力增长“划红线”,但是(在不逆转朝鲜发展的同时)单方面“划红线”,就等于是庇护DPRK,直接跟美韩日对抗,甚至会鼓励朝鲜。

这就是悖论。
追求真理 发表于 2015-5-13 19:35 | 显示全部楼层
kktt 发表于 2015-5-13 14:10
美军事专家:朝鲜近日进行的弹道导弹试射并非潜射

韩联社华盛顿5月12日电 由美国专门分析朝鲜动向的网站 ...

水下驳船 不还是潜射么
追求真理 发表于 2015-5-13 19:37 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 追求真理 于 2015-5-13 19:40 编辑
bluebluestar 发表于 2015-5-13 09:27
这根本就不是一次水下发射试验,而是水面发射试验。导弹由潜水发射平台发射,而平台并未完全潜入水中,导 ...

错,韩国媒体消息显示和我的预判一样是水下发射装置  只不过不是潜艇,但这是世界上多数研制潜射导弹国家的要有的经历
 楼主| kktt 发表于 2015-5-13 20:49 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kktt 于 2015-5-13 21:02 编辑

http://www.janes.com/article/513 ... stions-than-answers

North Korean SLBM test leaves more questions than answers
James Hardy, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
12 May 2015

    North Korea announced on 9 May that it had successfully test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile
    The veracity of the claim is unclear, but has already led to the South Korean politicians to caution that Seoul's defence capabilities and strategy are not ready to deal with this threat

North Korea's 9 May announcement that it had conducted an "underwater test-fire of Korean-style powerful strategic submarine ballistic missile" from a "strategic submarine" has prompted more questions than answers about the possible state of the country's submarine capabilities.

The state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper published a series of photographs showing a missile, with Pukgeukseong-1 (Polaris-1) written on the side, emerging from the water while North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watched.

The missile appears to be similar to the original R-27 Zyb SS-N-6 'Serb', a Soviet liquid-fuelled submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) that had a 2,400 km range and a 650 kg payload. It was deployed by the Soviet Union from 1968-88.

It was reported in September 2003 that North Korea had acquired a number of R-27s and this technology is believed to be the basis for the Musudan (BM-25) land-based intermediate range ballistic missile.

The 'Polaris-1' missile shown being launched is liquid and not solid propellant propelled, based on the fact that there is a distinct lack of white smoke (common with metallised composite solid propellants), but there is a clean flame and some brown fumes present. The latter suggests nitrogen tetroxide or some other nitrogen/oxygen-based oxidiser.

Submarine or submerged platform?

In a photograph published alongside those of the launch, Kim was shown smiling in front of a submarine - presumably the "strategic submarine" mentioned by Rodong Sinmun.

North Korea is believed to have 20 Soviet-era Project 633 'Romeo'-class diesel electric submarines and a number of indigenous Sang-O class boats. The boat in the photograph is more like the latter, but with dimensions of 35.5 m x 3.8 m x 3.7 m and a displacement of 260 tonnes, it seems an unlikely platform from which to launch a ballistic missile.

A more likely candidate is a new type unveiled by Johns Hopkins University in satellite imagery analysis published in mid-2014 and January 2015. The imagery suggests that North Korea had built a new class of submarine at the Sinpo naval base on the Sea of Japan/East Sea that is estimated to be 65.5 m long and have a displacement of 1,000-1,500 tonnes.

The new 'Sinpo'-class boat also has an aperture in the conning tower 4.25 m long and 2.25 m wide that could potentially be the location for vertical missile tubes. The R-27 SLBM had a diameter of 1.50 m, a length of 8.89 m, and a weight of approximately 14 tonnes. If used with an inclined launching tube, as suggested by the pictures, this would reduce the sub's required beam, but lower the potential carrying capacity in comparison to vertical tubes.

South Korea's Ministry of National Defense reportedly told opposition lawmakers that the North only has one submarine and that the missile fired from the submarine was "a dummy modeled after a Russian SLBM", the Joongang daily reported on 12 May.

"The North's SLBM development is in its early stage," MND spokesman Kim Min-seok told reporters later. "Based on histories of advanced countries, it takes four to five years to actually develop an SLBM programme after an underwater test-firing."

"For the North, the submarine used for the test was not even completed," he said. "It will take a much longer time for the North to complete the SLBM and install them on submarines. The North must stop the programme right now."

While the comments by the South Korean MND suggest they believe the missile was launched from a submarine, a number of factors suggest it is likely that the test firing instead took place from a submerged platform.

First, Kim seems to be embarked on a vessel operating in very close proximity to the firing. This is either somewhat risky - taking into account the fact that this was a first firing with several attendant risks - or it demonstrates total confidence in the submarine and the missile.

Moreover, as the missile is likely in the early stages of a trials programme, it would be consistent with other submarine missile development programmes to conduct launch trials on an instrumented range from a stationary submergible platform.

IHS Jane's assesses that this is the most likely scenario here and it would validate the proximity of Kim to the missile as it broaches the surface. In this assessment, the presence of the submarine in the accompanying photos - and the text claiming that the missile launch took place from the boat - is likely to be untrue.

Effect on Korean peninsula security

In the long run a successful SLBM would secure North Korea's second strike capability and complicate the South Korean 'Kill Chain' - Seoul's programme intended to hit North Korean land-based ballistic missiles before they are launched - possibly rendering 'Kill Chain' obsolete even before it starts properly.

In the short term this may make the situation strategically unstable if South Korea decided to strike before the submarine became operational, but given the proximity of Seoul to the demilitarised zone and North Korean artillery, overt military action by the South is unlikely.

The Joongang report on 12 May quoted ruling Saenuri party parliamentary leader Yoo Seong-min as saying that "the MND must create a new strategy on how to militarily counter this situation."


COMMENT

One possible area of comfort to Seoul is its long-term investments in anti-submarine warfare (ASW), which have increased since the sinking of the Pohang-class corvette RoKS Chon An in March 2010. South Korea said Chon An was the victim of a torpedo attack by a North Korean midget submarine.

North Korea's substantial submarine force means that the Republic of Korean Navy is upgrading its own submarine fleets and its surface and airborne ASW capabilities.

Subsurface initiatives include upgrades to nine Chang Bogo-class (Type 209) diesel-electric attack submarines and their eventual replacement by KSS-2-class (Type 214) boats - the sixth of this class, Yu Gwan-sun (078), was launched on 7 May. The RoKN is also investing in up to nine of the larger and more advanced 3,000-ton KSS-3 class, which will be South Korea's first homegrown submarine.

The RoKN's airborne ASW capability is provided by 23 Westland WG.13 Lynx Mk 99 helicopters, which are to be augmented by eight AgustaWestland AW159 Wildcat Surface Combatant Maritime Rotorcraft variants. The Wildcats will operate from the RoKN's new Incheon-class frigates and will be fitted with that includes an active dipping sonar, 360-degree radar, and nose-mounted electro-optical sensor.

South Korea's Defense Acquisition Procurement Agency (DAPA) announced in May 2014 that it had improved the accuracy the Korean Anti-Submarine Rocket (K-ASROC or Hongsangeo) and was on track to restart its mass production after the RoKN complained about it accuracy in July 2012. Mass production for the missile is expected to resume in June 2014.

South Korea also has 16 Lockheed Martin P-3CK Orion maritime patrol aircraft, and may be looking to supplement this fleet.

IHS Jane's naval, missile, and proliferation experts David Ewing, Neil Gibson, Stephen Saunders, Karl Dewey, and Doug Richardson contributed to this report.

zhyuli 发表于 2015-5-13 23:39 来自航空航天港手机版! | 显示全部楼层
JK-SETI 发表于 2015-5-13 15:11
SSBN本来就面临着巨大的威胁,ROK这一点增量也不算什么,不显著。这种情况就跟我国对待朝鲜的核能力/投送 ...

五大国最好立场一致,最后可以迫使朝鲜站在核边缘上——不试验,不部署..... 但可以换取一定经济发展机会,政权也相对稳固。

问题是能一致吗? 中俄在朝鲜问题上在前一阶段已有不同步的迹象,md在东北亚问题一向极端自私,总想搂草打兔子...

所以tg不得不去寻找所谓”次优选择”....
DF21 发表于 2015-5-14 05:34 | 显示全部楼层
SSN6的朝鲜版?
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