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[专题专项] 商业航天公司之SpaceX/政策计划人事财务预算等:USAF完成Falcon 9 Upgrade认证

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cmj9808 发表于 2017-6-9 12:56 | 显示全部楼层
Flying_Pencil 发表于 2017-6-9 12:49
k看起来舱内服的进度很慢啊,去年底的计划就说要开始测试了,结果到现在才完成了一次测试

这个报告里的内容就是去年底的,那时候LC-39A还没投入使用
cmj9808 发表于 2017-6-11 11:37 | 显示全部楼层
佛罗里达州政府SpX提供500万美元用于支付LC-40的导流槽和水声抑制装置的升级费用,修复工作将在夏末完成,升级后的LC-40将具备LC-39a两周一次的发射频率。
The state of Florida is contributing $5 million through Space Florida, an economic development agency focused on the aerospace industry, to help pay for upgrades at pad 40. The money was approved at a Space Florida board meeting June 1 to go toward an improved flame trench and enhanced acoustic suppression capability at pad 40...
SpaceX is expected to outfit pad 40 for a higher launch rate once the facility is back in service, using lessons learned at pad 39A, which can support launches in as little as every two weeks in its current configuration.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/ ... e-by-end-of-summer/
 楼主| hkhtg090201 发表于 2017-6-23 21:14 | 显示全部楼层
  SpaceX的新计划是 不断地放出来,  然后是不断地订正这些计划,   直到最后执行,比如:
  根据(引用)下面的内容, 估计 SpaceX 又要对 一些重要节点进行更改了, 摘取一点。

  D.yK 发表于 2017-6-23 10:50 | 只看该作者
   http://bbs.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mo ... id=10864&pid=545834

一.  FH再次推迟发射,并且第二次 发射 换了客户
   
1- Falcon Heavy的首航将于今年晚些时候发射。二级将进行长时滑行测试。第二飞将是明年年初的Arabsat-6A,之后是STP-2。

    ... ...
二.  2020年的火星计划,要么推迟,要么会更改方案,
      
3-2020年登陆火星很有挑战性。

      ... ...
三. 猎鹰火箭  还能用  猛禽发动机?
      
5-正在评估猎鹰使用猛禽的效用。

      ...  ...
四。2018年的FH月球载人计划, 看来变数不小,很可能推迟。
   
8-月球航班只会在与NASA的承诺完成后进行

   ...   ...
   ...  ...
 楼主| hkhtg090201 发表于 2017-6-24 08:08 | 显示全部楼层
     计划在卡角港新建的, 用于F9回收后进行存储/翻新的那个机棚,准备在6月28日对合同进行投票,包括合同期限 和 价格 等等...。

Port Canaveral to consider new lease for SpaceX
2017-06-22
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/b ... 20170622-story.html

SpaceX is leasing more land at Port Canaveral for rocket storage, and submitted a plan for a new rocket hangar, according to documents filed with the Port’s board of commissioners.

...  ... is set to vote on the new lease June 28.

...  ...
cmj9808 发表于 2017-7-17 18:47 | 显示全部楼层
SpX的代表在上周四的参议院听证会上首次公开敦促政府将COTS式的公私合营模式推广至深空探索领域
https://arstechnica.com/science/ ... -space-exploration/

自由狼-台风 发表于 2017-7-17 19:24 | 显示全部楼层
hkhtg090201 发表于 2017-6-23 21:14
SpaceX的新计划是 不断地放出来,  然后是不断地订正这些计划,   直到最后执行,比如:
  根据(引用 ...

那个“很有挑战性”,看原文的单词,貌似是“很激进”/“很有侵略性”……?

 楼主| hkhtg090201 发表于 2017-7-17 19:39 | 显示全部楼层
cmj9808 发表于 2017-7-17 18:47
SpX的代表在上周四的参议院听证会上首次公开敦促政府将COTS式的公私合营模式推广至深空探索领域
https://a ...

深空的特点: 距离远, 导致任务周期长.
  这些特点如何影响合同呢, 想起句俗语: "将在外, 军令有所不从"
9m96e2 发表于 2017-7-17 21:35 | 显示全部楼层
cmj9808 发表于 2017-7-17 18:47
SpX的代表在上周四的参议院听证会上首次公开敦促政府将COTS式的公私合营模式推广至深空探索领域
https://a ...

SpaceX goes there—seeks government funds for deep space
SpaceX的进击——要求政府资助深空任务

During the last decade, NASA has invested billions of dollars into programs with private companies to carry cargo and, eventually, astronauts to the International Space Station. These commercial services were powered by new kinds of contracts for the agency, because they offered a "fixed price" for services and required companies to put in their own funding to develop new spacecraft and rockets.
But the space agency has established a Maginot line of sorts around the planet when it comes to deep space exploration. For example, less than a year ago, NASA's then-administrator, Charles Bolden, said he's "not a big fan" of commercial companies building large, heavy lift rockets that will enable private companies to venture beyond low-Earth orbit. For Bolden, the lines were clear: we'll support you near Earth, but leave deep space to the professionals. "We believe our responsibility to the nation is to take care of things that normal people cannot do, or don’t want to do, like large launch vehicles," Bolden said of NASA.
Nevertheless, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other companies have pressed forward with their plans to develop large rockets capable of deep space exploration. And they're making progress. SpaceX's Falcon Heavy booster, which has 90 percent of the lift capability to low Earth orbit as the initial version of NASA's Space Launch System, is likely to fly in 2017—up to two years before NASA's own big rocket.
在过去十年中,美国航空航天局已向与私人公司的合作项目中投入数十亿美元,来将货物运送到国际空间站,并最终将宇航员运往国际空间站。这些商业服务是由该机构的新型合同推动的,因为它们为服务提供了“固定价格”,并要求公司投入自己的资金开发新的航天器和火箭。
但是,当涉及深空探测时,航天局已经在地球周围的空间划定了一道“马其诺防线”。例如,不到一年前,美国宇航局当时的管理人员查尔斯·博尔登(Charles Bolden)表示,他不是那些正建造重型运载火箭,以前往LEO以外探索的民营企业的“大粉丝”。对于博尔登来说,红线很清楚:我们会在地球圈附近支持你,但是深空属于专业人员。 “我们相信我们对国家的责任是去负责那些正常人(会去搞commercial space的都不是正常人吧==)不能做或不想做的事情,比如大型运载火箭”博尔登代表NASA说。
然而,SpaceX,Blue Origin等公司已经投身于大型火箭的开发计划,它们有能力为深空探索服务。而且他们的确正在取得进展。相比NASA的SLS(太空发射系统)的初始版本,SpaceX的Falcon Heavy的LEO运力是了它的90%,很可能会在2017年首飞,相比NASA自己的大型火箭提前两年。


Call for deep space

On Thursday during a hearing before the US Senate's Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, SpaceX formally called upon the US government to support public-private partnerships in deep space. Tim Hughes, SpaceX's senior vice president for global business and government affairs, testified. "The principles applied in past programs for low Earth orbit capability can and should be applied to deep space exploration," Hughes said. He referred to NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services, or COTS program.

NASA, Hughes said, should now consider funding a COTS-like program to run "in parallel" to NASA's Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft for deep space exploration. "There's a program of record right now that is NASA's central focus for deep space exploration," Hughes said in response to a Senator's question. "But I think it can be readily supplemented with public-private partnerships to allow us to sustain a permanent presence in space."

As examples, Hughes said NASA could set "high level requirements" for companies, such as demonstrating the vertical takeoff and landing of rockets from the lunar surface, delivering large amounts of cargo to the surface of Mars, or building a more reliable communications network between Earth and Mars. All of these projects, he said, would enable the United States to establish a permanent presence in space, rather than fly one-off missions.

深空在召唤
星期四,在美国参议院空间,科学和竞争力小组委员会的听证会上,SpaceX正式要求美国政府支持公私合营的深空项目。 SpaceX全球商业和政府事务高级副总裁Tim Hughes作证。他说:“以往在低地球轨道任务中应用的原则可以,而且应该适用于深空探测。”他提到NASA的商业轨道交通服务,也即COTS计划。
休斯表示,NASA现在应该考虑资助一个类似COTS的计划,以便与NASA的太空发射系统和猎户座航天器进行深空探索并行运行。“在当前的项目记录中,NASA将重点放在深空探索上。” 休斯在回答参议员的问题时说,“但我认为可以很容易地加上公私伙伴关系(PPP),使我们能够在太空中维持永久的存在。”
例如,休斯表示,美国航空航天局可以为公司设定“更高级的要求”,例如展示火箭在月球表面垂直起飞和着陆,将大量货物运送到火星表面,或建立更可靠的通信网络地球和火星。(似乎是说任务驱动型的合同,而非运载火箭/子系统的开发合同)他说,所有这些项目都将使美国能够在太空中建立永久性的存在,而不是执行一次性任务。

COTS works?
Hughes also offered evidence that the COTS program has benefited both NASA and SpaceX to a large degree. For example, in 2011, NASA estimated that it would have cost the agency about $4 billion to develop a rocket like the Falcon 9 booster based upon NASA's traditional contracting processes. A more "commercial development" approach might have allowed the agency to pay only $1.7 billion.
However, by setting a high-level requirement for cargo transport to the space station—and leaving the details to industry—SpaceX was allowed to design and develop the Falcon 9 rocket on its own, Hughes said. The cost? According to NASA's own independently verified numbers, SpaceX’s development costs of both the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 rockets were estimated at approximately $390 million in total. NASA got a better deal, and SpaceX got a rocket it could use to fly commercial payloads as well as NASA ones.
It is not clear how warm the senators were to SpaceX's plan, which shares support in the commercial space community from others interested in deep space activities (such as Blue Origin, with its Blue Moon concept). "I think the COTS program has been a great success story for NASA and the commercial marketplace, and believe that the government should look at all options for public private partnership in advancing our nation's exploration goals," said Eric Stallmer, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation.
However, some at NASA will likely resist the notion, as it would mean relinquishing some of the control they have over design and development of rockets and spacecraft under the agency's traditional, cost-plus contracting methods. The beneficiaries of those contracts—including Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Aerojet Rocketydyne, and other established aerospace companies—are also likely to be less than welcoming toward NASA opening the door to competition in deep space exploration to new space firms.

COTS有用吗?
休斯还提供证据表明,COTS计划在很大程度上受益于NASA和SpaceX。例如,在2011年,美国宇航局估计,基于NASA传统承包流程,该机构将花费大约40亿(!!!)美元来开发一款类似猎鹰9的火箭。更“商业”的开发方式可能使该机构只需支付17亿美元。
然而,计划设定了“更高级的要求”——将货物运输往空间站,而将产品细节留给商业公司——SpaceX可以自行设计和开发Falcon 9火箭。成本?根据NASA自己经过验证的数据,SpaceX的Falcon 1和Falcon 9火箭的开发总成本估计约为3.9亿美元。 NASA得到了更好的交易,SpaceX得到了一个和NASA一样好的,可以用来发射商业有效载荷的火箭。
但参议员对SpaceX的计划的热情尚不可知。在商业航天业中,SpaceX的计划中与其他对深空活动感兴趣的人(如Blue Origin,Blue Moon概念)共同受到支持。商业航天联盟的主席埃里克·斯塔尔默(Eric Stallmer)表示:“我认为COTS计划对NASA和商业市场来说是一个很棒的成功案例,并且相信政府应该考虑公共私营伙伴关系的所有选择来推进我们国家的勘探目标。
然而,美国宇航局的一些人可能会抵制这一概念,因为这将意味着放弃根据该机构传统的成本加成合同(成本越高,利润越多)方式对火箭和航天器设计和开发的一些控制。这些合同的受益者包括洛克希德马丁公司,波音公司,阿罗杰特洛克达因公司以及其他建制派的航空航天公司,也有可能不太喜欢NASA为新太空公司开辟的深空探索的大门。
cmj9808 发表于 2017-7-18 16:06 | 显示全部楼层
hkhtg090201 发表于 2017-7-17 19:39
深空的特点: 距离远, 导致任务周期长.
  这些特点如何影响合同呢, 想起句俗语: "将在外, 军令有所不从": ...

只要NASA没有足够的预算,它将不得不与商业公司在更多的领域进行COTS式的合作
黑与白 发表于 2017-7-18 18:59 | 显示全部楼层
cmj9808 发表于 2017-7-17 18:47
SpX的代表在上周四的参议院听证会上首次公开敦促政府将COTS式的公私合营模式推广至深空探索领域
https://a ...

可能性不大,nasa知道深空探测的风险,spacex现在也没证明自己已经有这种能力了,一个近地载人项目都推迟多年,nasa无法承受这种不确定性,美国政府和nasa更不可能放弃已经花费百亿的sls和orion这种核心资产,无论愿意承认与否,目前进度最快最靠谱的深空载人项目都是nasa自己的sls和Orion,而不是私人公司那些ppt计划
majingwen 发表于 2017-7-18 19:41 | 显示全部楼层
黑与白 发表于 2017-7-18 18:59
可能性不大,nasa知道深空探测的风险,spacex现在也没证明自己已经有这种能力了,一个近地载人项目都推迟 ...

??????????????先从运货做起,基本就是手到擒来的事情
9m96e2 发表于 2017-7-18 21:58 | 显示全部楼层
黑与白 发表于 2017-7-18 18:59
可能性不大,nasa知道深空探测的风险,spacex现在也没证明自己已经有这种能力了,一个近地载人项目都推迟 ...

orion又有什么资格来嘲笑龙2和星际线呢?
跆拳道大灰狼 发表于 2017-7-18 23:24 | 显示全部楼层
9m96e2 发表于 2017-7-17 21:35
SpaceX goes there—seeks government funds for deep space
SpaceX的进击——要求政府资助深空任务

另一篇文章“If the US really wants to go to Mars, Elon Musk knows how to bring down the price”,佐证你一下。

While COTS suffered from its own delays, the return on investment was impressive for a NASA program: The $500 million investment resulted in the creation of two new rockets, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and OrbitalATK’s Antares. While the Antares has suffered from growing pains following an early failure, the Falcon 9 has proven a cost-effective and reliable vehicle for NASA projects. On the other hand, NASA’s deep-space rocket—an admittedly more complex challenge—has been under development since 2010, will cost $23 billion, and won’t fly until 2019.
商业化的COTS计划耗资5亿美元,催生了猎鹰9和安塔瑞斯两款商业化火箭;而NASA自营的“低成本”火箭SLS,预计将耗资230亿美元,基于各种“成熟技术”,历时9年研发迎来首飞,或许这两个项目和开支直接对比并不合适,但我想还是值得我们思考的。

吵架并不解决什么问题,既然老马和贝光头都要挺进深空,我们搬个板凳看看他们能不能在深空领域再造奇迹就得了。

https://qz.com/1029450/spacex-founder-elon-musk-has-an-idea-for-getting-to-mars-at-a-lower-cost-than-nasa-could-achieve-on-its-own/
跆拳道大灰狼 发表于 2017-7-18 23:34 | 显示全部楼层
9m96e2 发表于 2017-7-18 21:58
orion又有什么资格来嘲笑龙2和星际线呢?

嗯,和你类似,我非常想知道”猎户座“基于近半个世纪航天发展,到底做出了多大的“创新”和“进步”?


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iamanewbee 发表于 2017-7-19 09:42 | 显示全部楼层
跆拳道大灰狼 发表于 2017-7-18 23:34
嗯,和你类似,我非常想知道”猎户座“基于近半个世纪航天发展,到底做出了多大的“创新”和“进步”?
...

创新进步的确不多,也就是个头大一点、电脑快一点等等。
黑与白 发表于 2017-7-19 14:00 | 显示全部楼层
9m96e2 发表于 2017-7-18 21:58
orion又有什么资格来嘲笑龙2和星际线呢?

连上天都没实现过的龙2又有什么值得一提的呢?更不用说高速再入实验了
9m96e2 发表于 2017-7-19 14:51 | 显示全部楼层
黑与白 发表于 2017-7-19 14:00
连上天都没实现过的龙2又有什么值得一提的呢?更不用说高速再入实验了

如果连个未完全体的再入试验都可以拿来说事的话,那也请别忘了龙1都飞了十几次了
cmj9808 发表于 2017-7-19 15:01 | 显示全部楼层
黑与白 发表于 2017-7-18 18:59
可能性不大,nasa知道深空探测的风险,spacex现在也没证明自己已经有这种能力了,一个近地载人项目都推迟 ...

SpX之前确实没寄希望于染指NASA的深空任务,尤其是载人任务。但是最近的风向变了,NASA负责载人探索的副局长Gerstenmaier公开承认NASA当前预算不足以进行载人火星任务;主管national space council的副总统Pence则在上个月对KSC员工的演讲中称赞了美国商业航天的出色表现,尤其提到了SpX,但却只字未提SLS和Orion;而最近被任命为national space council执行秘书长的Scott Pace也倾向于商业航天,Commercial Spaceflight Federation 和Space Florida等商业航天团体都在第一时间向其表示祝贺。以上种种迹象表明深空载人探索任务很快也将不再是NASA的禁脔,事实上除了SpX之外,Bezos最近也频繁表态,希望Blue origin能在NASA的BEO任务中分得一杯羹
joki 发表于 2017-7-19 15:45 | 显示全部楼层
cmj9808 发表于 2017-7-19 15:01
SpX之前确实没寄希望于染指NASA的深空任务,尤其是载人任务。但是最近的风向变了,NASA负责载人探索的副 ...

NRO货运应该还是有点希望的,特别是Spx。
Bezos关键还是得赶紧把BE-4和NG搞出来,光拍胸脯表态没用啊。一步迈这么大。
cmj9808 发表于 2017-7-19 16:33 | 显示全部楼层
joki 发表于 2017-7-19 15:45
NRO货运应该还是有点希望的,特别是Spx。
Bezos关键还是得赶紧把BE-4和NG搞出来,光拍胸脯表态没用啊。 ...

NRO货运基本板上钉钉是商业公司的,NASA没有相应的飞船提供货运服务,SpX是希望在客运上也能参与
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