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[畅聊吧] 中美国家发展比较及借鉴:中美主要发展指标比较及中国超越时间表

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 楼主| i2000s 发表于 2014-1-21 12:50 | 显示全部楼层
这篇说美国第三季度出人意料的高速增长得益于中国的进口增长,尤其是大豆进口。

                        http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/politicalcalculations/2013/12/14/thanks-china-solving-the-mystery-of-unexpectedly-strong-us-gdp-growth-n1762731/page/full
Thanks China! Solving the Mystery of Unexpectedly Strong U.S. GDP Growth
            Political  Calculations | Dec 14, 2013        
   
                   

                        Recommend this article        

                               
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        We're going to start solving the mystery of why economic growth in the U.S. was so unexpectedly strong in the third quarter of 2013 in a place you wouldn't necessarily expect: the ports of China.
        According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the United States' exports to China surged in October 2013, which we can see in the dramatic spike upward in the year-over-year rate of growth of U.S. exports to that nation for the month:
       
        But that's putting it mildly. Left unstated is that the U.S. set at all-time record for the value of its exports to China:
       
        Even Reuters took notice, but didn't really appreciate the magnitude of the month's trade, as the news agency reported from the Chinese perspective:
         (Reuters) - China's imports surged in October as exports grew at their slowest rate in months, suggesting efforts to tilt the economy toward domestic demand may be offsetting the external weakness that has dragged on economic growth this year.                        Customs figures showed import growth of 28.7 percent year on year in October, well ahead of the 23.0 percent forecast and far in excess of September's 20.9 percent growth rate.       
                        Headline growth in exports meanwhile was its most sluggish in eight months, but strip out the traditionally volatile month of February and October's growth of 15.9 percent was the slowest since November 2009 when they shrank.       
                        "We were expecting quite a deceleration as external demand continues to decline in Western economies," said Donna Kwok, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong. "But the key thing to look at here is the strength of the domestic demand factors as imports grew nearly 29 percent."       
        Reuters goes on to look at where all the increase in the goods that China imported from other nations originated:
         Imports from all three of China's key trading partners surged.                        The rate of import growth from the United States accelerated the fastest at 20.5 percent over a year earlier, jumping by 7.6 percentage points from September's pace.       
                        Imports from resource-rich Australia grew at 36.7 percent versus September's 33.4 percent, while European Union imports rose 28.2 percent versus 25.7 percent previously.       
        So most of the increase in what China imported from other nations came from the United States. But what was it that China imported in such great quantity?
        We drilled down into the Census' data on what the U.S. exported to China. And what we found is that the U.S. exported a record amount of soybeans to China in October 2013, the value of which accounted for 22.6%, or nearly $1 out of every $4 of the value of all $13.060 billion worth of the U.S.' exports to that nation, accounting for nearly all of the year-over-year increase.
        So where did all these soybeans come from? Because they definitely weren't there last year....
        It turns out that weather conditions in 2013 across all of North America were nearly ideal for growing just about every crop grown in the U.S., with the result that U.S. farmers were harvesting bumper crops of just about everything they grow in August and September 2013.
        Those bumper crops, in turn, solves a different mystery: why did the U.S.' GDP unexpectedly grow so much on increased business inventories in the third quarter of 2013?
       
        Reuters reports on that story:
         (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew faster than initially estimated in the third quarter but weak demand and a pile-up in business inventories buoyed the case for the Federal Reserve to keep up its bond-buying stimulus for now.                        Gross domestic product grew at a 3.6 percent annual rate instead of the 2.8 percent pace reported a month ago, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.       
                        It was the biggest gain since the first quarter of 2012, but inventories accounted for almost half of the increase in growth.       
       
        Thanks to the international trade data, we now know what U.S. businesses were putting into their inventories in such great quantities! It would appear that the bumper crops produced by U.S. farmers were parked in silos and storage containers (or rather, inventories) in the third quarter of 2013. Those inventories subsequently enabled a very large surge in exports to China in October 2013, which is in the fourth quarter.
        Now, what that means is that the U.S. economy isn't necessarily as strong as it would seem from its GDP data, since the vast majority of the organic growth in the economy, above and beyond the level the Fed has been able to generate through its quantitative easing programs, would appear to have occurred just in the agricultural industry. Which we note would also appear to be the result of unique factors that applied in 2013 that are well outside the control of that industry.
        That in turn would explain why the stock markets are reacting so negatively to the increasing expectation that the Fed will begin to taper its QE programs in the first quarter of 2014 - they know there isn't enough sustainable organic growth in the U.S. economy to offset the loss of the Fed's stimulative QE programs.
        And we've already demonstrated that increasing likelihood of a Fed QE taper is behind the recent resurgence of recessionary conditions in the U.S. economy, with the greatest impact being felt by the U.S. housing industry.
        We should also note that the spending increases in the new budget deal in Congress would not meaningfully add to GDP in 2014, since it doesn't address the source of over 90% of the fiscal drag holding down the U.S. economy: President Obama's 2013 tax hikes.
        Nor does it address the imposition of higher income taxes on low and middle-income earners, which will take effect in 2014 thanks to the multiple failures and mandates of the Affordable Care Act (popularly known as "Obamacare"), and which have put obtaining affordable health insurance coverage beyond their means unless President Obama agrees to address them.
        On the whole, unless something dramatically changes in the very near future, 2014 won't be anywhere near as promising as what a lot of economists are currently suggesting. But then, all of the rest of them haven't figured out the soybean thing yet....
        
   

 楼主| i2000s 发表于 2014-1-21 13:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 i2000s 于 2014-1-21 00:44 编辑


                               
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             united-states-gdp-growth-annual.png
中美两国GDP增长率的关联性。黑线(左边标尺)是美国每季度增长率,蓝线(右边标尺)是中国增长率。周后一个刻度的美国第四季度GDP增长率尚未公布,预计比第三季度下滑。从增长积累曲线面积可见目前美国略超过2008年左右的水平。
数据来自于http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual
有兴趣的话,自己可以从tradingeconomics上或者世界银行数据库等下载各种数据,方便自己制作各种图表。

 楼主| i2000s 发表于 2015-4-16 15:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 i2000s 于 2015-4-16 02:06 编辑

美国2014年增长率实现2.4%,为近11年新高,处于10年左右的经济萧条-加速发展的接近峰值时期。预计2015年达到这一周期的峰值增长率。官方经济数据发布于:https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

中国2014年年增长率触及7.4%的低谷,预计2015年继续下滑进入深度调整期。而2014年人均GDP达到7572.4美元(按汇率折算),或12893.4美元(按购买力平价折算)。全国2014年GDP总量按照现价达到美国的60%,而按照购买力平价则已超过美国GDP。世界银行对中国历年人均GDP数据汇总及展望可以参考:http://knoema.com/pjeqzh/gdp-per ... try-1980-2014#China

2013年世界银行对人均GDP的国际排行可以参考:http://knoema.com/sijweyg/gdp-pe ... 013-data-and-charts
2014年世界银行对世界各国GDP的国家排行可以参考:http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts
 楼主| i2000s 发表于 2015-6-7 01:11 | 显示全部楼层
筹资290亿美元 中国超越美国成全球最大IPO市场
http://www.guancha.cn/economy
发表时间:2015-06-06 12:25:28
字号:A-AA+
关键字: 股市IPO市场IPO筹集融资规模注册制改革中国核电新股发行       

一方面,沪指站上5000点;另一方面,随着IPO速度不断加快,中国超越美国成为全球最大的IPO市场。

数据定制服务商Dealogic提供的数据显示,今年以来中资企业通过在内地和香港股市进行IPO筹集了近290亿美元,超过了美国同期150亿美元的融资规模。

之所以取得如此大的IPO规模,一方面是因为中资企业大规模的赴港融资在增加。如华泰证券赴港融资45亿美元,广发证券赴港融资41亿美元,香港市场今年迄今的IPO总规模达到118亿美元。

此外,今年A股市场大涨吸引不少资金入市,提振了上市公司的热情。

注册制改革的加快是另一个重要原因。2015年上半年,新股发行无论是频次还是单批数量都明显提升。根据证监会发布的最新数据,截至2015年5月28日,中国证监会受理首发企业549家,其中,已过会29家,未过会520家。未过会企业中正常待审企业496家,中止审查企业24家。若以每周15家的过会速度来计算,今年有望消化400余家。

另一方面,新股发行募资规模也不小。就在本周,“巨无霸”中国核电申购,募资达135.80亿元,申购冻结了1.69万亿元。

5日沪指时隔7年再次站上5000点大关。在股市向好的情况下,未来,或将有越来越多的上市公司挤入IPO的行列,融资规模也有望继续上涨。(文/陈若然)
 楼主| i2000s 发表于 2018-4-11 13:48 | 显示全部楼层
最近的NatureIndex (注意看WFC指标,排名第二):1 February 2017 - 31 January 2018
https://www.natureindex.com/coun ... /All/weighted_score

Country/territory        AC        FC        WFC
United States of America (USA)        24561        17115.92        15297.88
China        10773        7635.26        7252.74
Germany        8738        4255.42        3654.50
United Kingdom (UK)        7843        3624.82        2998.10
Japan        4620        2875.01        2614.72
France        5126        2242.34        1824.77
Canada        2899        1319.49        1174.83
Switzerland        2960        1173.48        1052.54
South Korea        1926        1048.29        962.24
Spain        2990        1170.63        919.76
India        1622        1035.22        890.24
Italy        3267        1287.61        889.30
Australia        2550        1008.13        802.80
Netherlands        2551        904.96        728.69
Singapore        866        465.33        464.16
Israel        1140        531.25        456.04
Sweden        1631        537.63        454.04
Russia        1475        487.85        389.48
Taiwan        953        356        318.95
Belgium        1143        385.68        318.32
Austria        990        331.78        297.11
Denmark        1025        301.46        259.95
Brazil        1033        331.96        246.46
 楼主| i2000s 发表于 2018-7-29 15:36 | 显示全部楼层
最近的一些数据比较。来自超大网友提供。

人均制造业产值

人均制造业产值


111109cbplrlkb3ttsi4ge.png

114035do737iok7i1j377l.jpg

132407dbdgbm6bgrp4byj6.png

155953lg1u9x59o1bb1oxp.jpg

160005uicwe58zc8p988uw.jpg

人均汽车

人均汽车






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pbs 发表于 2018-8-14 00:52 | 显示全部楼层
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pbs 发表于 2018-8-14 00:54 | 显示全部楼层
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clarkgao 发表于 2018-8-14 12:04 | 显示全部楼层
pbs 发表于 2018-8-14 00:54
美国外交关系委员会的主页上有一个专题,是关于“中国制造 2o25”的,非常令人恐惧的标题是:《为什么每 ...

我就是有点好奇他说的让步具体是指什么。
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pbs 发表于 2018-8-14 12:30 | 显示全部楼层
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clarkgao 发表于 2018-8-14 12:40 | 显示全部楼层
pbs 发表于 2018-8-14 12:30
1999年的文章
http://economics.efnchina.com/show-1693-61748-1.html

具体而言就是当利润最高的500亿不存在,然后指望川皇看了明年的贸易报告后不会因“效果未达到预期”为理由再扔几千亿?还不如继续打呢。

顺便,川皇可能不太赞同这位对国际贸易的高见,谁能说服美国人相信这个?

“有人支持中国加入WTO,理由是WTO可以刺激出口。这种人不是自由贸易的可靠支持者——因出口而支持WTO的人,就同样会因入口而反对WTO。很多人以为出口总比入口好,赚美元总比花掉外汇好。其实,出口我们的廉价商品,与入口国外的廉价商品,对于改善中国人的生活,同样重要,缺一不可。”
ziluolan 发表于 2018-8-14 13:19 | 显示全部楼层
pbs 发表于 2018-8-14 00:52
[转帖]可能我们之前了解的是一个假美国

非常赞同文中的一些观点。
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pbs 发表于 2018-8-15 02:07 | 显示全部楼层
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clarkgao 发表于 2018-8-15 03:15 | 显示全部楼层
pbs 发表于 2018-8-15 02:07
其实从18年WTO执行情况来看,中国更应该走向零关税。

结局是中国人民可以享受更廉价的外国商品,同时 ...

确实如此,目前国内推进的几个零关税项目进展都不错,只要不涉及农业,当今条件下中国如今绝对是低关税的受益国。但川皇可是看两国间贸易逆差干活的人,对华入超不解决是不会松口。而对美顺差大头是转口贸易,属于结构性问题,除非修改国际贸易统计方式,否则解决不了。
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pbs 发表于 2018-8-15 08:17 | 显示全部楼层
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clarkgao 发表于 2018-8-15 08:32 | 显示全部楼层
pbs 发表于 2018-8-15 08:17
实施零关税是证明你有竞争力的最佳表现。

等到中国全部取消进口关税,对美国还是出超,就怪不了中国了 ...

说的就是这个。但川皇是什么人,日本这么恭顺的国家就因为那1000亿的逆差连几个月豁免都没争取到,把逆差降到1000亿还是日本过去努力自我规制的结果。显然,川普看中的是入超问题,包括关税在内的一系列理论对他而言只是降低逆差的手段。
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